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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 3 › Sparta Katowice v ROW Rybnik

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Sparta Katowice v ROW Rybnik

Sparta Katowice
2–0Full time
ROW Rybnik

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56
Sparta Katowice 2–0 ROW Rybnik SPARTA KATOWICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sparta Katowice win51%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.355
The market’s Brier score0.332

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Katowice win at 51%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Sparta Katowice 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Sparta Katowice v ROW Rybnik
  4. 7′Sparta Katowice score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–10
  5. 7′We said Sparta Katowice at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–10
  6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Sparta Katowice 1–0 ROW Rybnik
  7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Sparta Katowice win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Sparta Katowice 1–0 ROW Rybnik
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Sparta Katowice 1–0 ROW Rybnik
  11. 47′Sparta Katowice find the net on 47′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  12. 47′We said Sparta Katowice at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sparta Katowice 2–0 ROW Rybnik
  14. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Sparta Katowice win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
  15. 82′We said Sparta Katowice at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  16. FTFULL TIME Sparta Katowice 2–0 ROW Rybnik
  17. FTSparta Katowice 2–0 ROW Rybnik · Sparta Katowice win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Katowice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Katowice 51%, draw 23%, ROW Rybnik 25%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Katowice v ROW RybnikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Katowice win51%
Draw23%
ROW Rybnik win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Katowice

ROW Rybnik

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Sparta Katowice12+1124
6ROW Rybnik12+620

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta katowice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
51% The market53%
Us51%
Market53%

We make Sparta Katowice a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sparta Katowice v ROW Rybnik1.76 – 1.15
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 24 v 202 v 6
The market · Sparta Katowice win53% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 10:43
Our probability · Sparta Katowice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sparta Katowice win51%53%−2
Draw23%24%−1
ROW Rybnik win25%23%+2
Over 2.5 goals55%60%−5
Both teams to score56%60%−4
Over 1.5 goals78%81%−3
Over 3.5 goals33%39%−6
Sparta Katowice or draw75%77%−2
Sparta Katowice clean sheet32%––
ROW Rybnik clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%
0123450 5.8 6.4 3.7 1 9.7 10.9 6.2 2.4 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 4.9 5.5 3.1 4 2.2 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Katowice down, ROW Rybnik across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

SPARTA KATOWICE

WDWWDL4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

ROW RYBNIK

LDDWWW2–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec12+825
2Sparta Katowice12+1124
3Zagłębie Lubin II12+1024
4Odra Bytom Odrzański12+724
5Barycz Sułów12+521
6ROW Rybnik12+620
7Karkonosze Jelenia Góra13+419
8Górnik Polkowice12+418
9Miedź Legnica II12+517
10Stilon Gorzów12+116
11Warta Gorzów12−714
12Stal Brzeg12+112
13Goczałkowice Zdrój12−512
14Kluczbork11−812
15Polonia Nysa13−1112
16Ślęza Wrocław12−1010
17Rakow II11−79
18Carina Gubin12−149

The competition's standings before kick-off.