Sparta Katowice v Barycz Sułów prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sparta KatowiceDrawBarycz Sułów

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sparta Katowice 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Katowice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Katowice 54%, draw 24%, Barycz Sułów 22%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Katowice v Barycz SułówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Katowice win54%

Draw24%

Barycz Sułów win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Katowice

Barycz Sułów

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sparta Katowice	14	+15	30
8	Barycz Sułów	14	+2	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta katowice winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Sparta Katowice a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sparta Katowice v Barycz Sułów~~1.66 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 18 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 30 v 21~~2 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Katowice win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Barycz Sułów win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Sparta Katowice or draw	78%	–	–
Sparta Katowice clean sheet	39%	–	–
Barycz Sułów clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 7.7 7.1 3.4 1 12.3 11.4 5.4 2 10.1 9.3 4.4 3 5.6 5.2 2.5 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Katowice down, Barycz Sułów across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,638 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sparta Katowice at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Barycz Sułów away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Sparta Katowice, 0.94 for Barycz Sułów. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 18 Sept

SPARTA KATOWICE

WWDLWW2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1

BARYCZ SUŁÓW

LDLDLL0–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	+15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	+8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	ROW Rybnik	14	+7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	+6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	+5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	+2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	−4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	+2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	−10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	−11	13
16	Rakow II	13	−8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	−14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	−14	12