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Ślęza Wrocław v Carina Gubin
Ślęza Wrocław
Carina GubinIII Liga - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ślęza Wrocław win at 45%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Ślęza Wrocław was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
- 2′KICK-OFF Ślęza Wrocław v Carina Gubin
- 23′A goal for Carina Gubin on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–58
- 23′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
- 23′⚽ GOAL · 20' Ślęza Wrocław 0–1 Carina Gubin
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
- 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Carina Gubin win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Ślęza Wrocław win 19%)
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–23–60
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 39′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 43′PENALTY MISSED · 42' Ślęza Wrocław
- 45′HALF-TIME Ślęza Wrocław 0–1 Carina Gubin
- 47′SECOND HALF Ślęza Wrocław 0–1 Carina Gubin
- 48′Ślęza Wrocław score on 48′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–38–27
- 48′Much as we predicted: Ślęza Wrocław was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 1–1 · 36–38–27
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ślęza Wrocław 1–1 Carina Gubin
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
- 50′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 35–39–26
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Carina Gubin win 26%)
- 54′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–41–25
- 56′Carina Gubin find the net on 55′. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ślęza Wrocław 1–2 Carina Gubin
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Carina Gubin win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
- 57′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
- 70′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
- 84′A goal for Carina Gubin on 84′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 84′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Ślęza Wrocław 1–3 Carina Gubin
- FTFULL TIME Ślęza Wrocław 1–3 Carina Gubin
- FTŚlęza Wrocław 1–3 Carina Gubin · Ślęza Wrocław win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassŚlęza Wrocław are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Ślęza Wrocław 45%, draw 24%, Carina Gubin 31%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Ślęza Wrocław win45%
Carina Gubin win31%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00
RoundGroup III · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Ślęza WrocławMIN
Carina GubinEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ślęza Wrocław
Carina Gubin
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Ślęza Wrocław a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ślęza Wrocław win | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Carina Gubin win | 31% | 28% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Ślęza Wrocław or draw | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Ślęza Wrocław clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Carina Gubin clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept
ŚLĘZA WROCŁAW
CARINA GUBIN
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 12 | +8 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 12 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 4 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 11 | Warta Gorzów | 12 | −7 | 14 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 12 | −5 | 12 |
| 14 | Kluczbork | 11 | −8 | 12 |
| 15 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | −11 | 12 |
| 16 | Ślęza Wrocław | 12 | −10 | 10 |
| 17 | Rakow II | 11 | −7 | 9 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 12 | −14 | 9 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Sparta Katowice
Zagłębie Lubin II
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Barycz Sułów
ROW Rybnik
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Górnik Polkowice
Miedź Legnica II
Stilon Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
Stal Brzeg
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Kluczbork
Polonia Nysa
Rakow II