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Model 1.2

Home › Football › III Liga - Group 3 › Ślęza Wrocław v Carina Gubin

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Ślęza Wrocław v Carina Gubin

Ślęza Wrocław
1–3Full time
Carina Gubin

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Ślęza Wrocław 1–3 Carina Gubin ŚLĘZA WROCŁAW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ślęza Wrocław win45%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.732
The market’s Brier score0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ślęza Wrocław win at 45%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Ślęza Wrocław was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Ślęza Wrocław v Carina Gubin
  4. 23′A goal for Carina Gubin on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  5. 23′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 20' Ślęza Wrocław 0–1 Carina Gubin
  7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Carina Gubin win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Ślęza Wrocław win 19%)
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–23–60
  10. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  11. 39′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  12. 43′PENALTY MISSED · 42' Ślęza Wrocław
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Ślęza Wrocław 0–1 Carina Gubin
  14. 47′SECOND HALF Ślęza Wrocław 0–1 Carina Gubin
  15. 48′Ślęza Wrocław score on 48′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–38–27
  16. 48′Much as we predicted: Ślęza Wrocław was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 1–1 · 36–38–27
  17. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ślęza Wrocław 1–1 Carina Gubin
  18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
  19. 50′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 35–39–26
  20. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Carina Gubin win 26%)
  21. 54′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–41–25
  22. 56′Carina Gubin find the net on 55′. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  23. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ślęza Wrocław 1–2 Carina Gubin
  24. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
  25. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Carina Gubin win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
  26. 57′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
  27. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Ślęza Wrocław win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  28. 70′We said Ślęza Wrocław at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  29. 84′A goal for Carina Gubin on 84′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  30. 84′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  31. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Ślęza Wrocław 1–3 Carina Gubin
  32. FTFULL TIME Ślęza Wrocław 1–3 Carina Gubin
  33. FTŚlęza Wrocław 1–3 Carina Gubin · Ślęza Wrocław win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ślęza Wrocław are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ślęza Wrocław 45%, draw 24%, Carina Gubin 31%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Ślęza Wrocław v Carina GubinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ślęza Wrocław win45%
Draw24%
Carina Gubin win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ślęza Wrocław

Carina Gubin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
16Ślęza Wrocław12−1010
18Carina Gubin12−149

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ślęza wrocław winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market48%
Us45%
Market48%

We make Ślęza Wrocław a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ślęza Wrocław v Carina Gubin1.70 – 1.37
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 10 v 916 v 18
The market · Ślęza Wrocław win48% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 13:29
Our probability · Ślęza Wrocław win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ślęza Wrocław win45%48%−3
Draw24%24%0
Carina Gubin win31%28%+3
Over 2.5 goals59%60%−1
Both teams to score60%62%−2
Over 1.5 goals81%81%0
Over 3.5 goals37%39%−2
Ślęza Wrocław or draw69%72%−3
Ślęza Wrocław clean sheet26%––
Carina Gubin clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 4.9 6.5 4.4 2.0 1 8.0 10.7 7.3 3.4 2 6.7 9.0 6.1 2.8 3 3.8 5.1 3.5 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ślęza Wrocław down, Carina Gubin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsCAR 1–1 SLE · SLE 2–2 CAR · SLE 0–0 CAR · CAR 1–2 SLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

ŚLĘZA WROCŁAW

LLLDWL1–2 · 2–3 · 3–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

CARINA GUBIN

LDLLWD1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec12+825
2Sparta Katowice12+1124
3Zagłębie Lubin II12+1024
4Odra Bytom Odrzański12+724
5Barycz Sułów12+521
6ROW Rybnik12+620
7Karkonosze Jelenia Góra13+419
8Górnik Polkowice12+418
9Miedź Legnica II12+517
10Stilon Gorzów12+116
11Warta Gorzów12−714
12Stal Brzeg12+112
13Goczałkowice Zdrój12−512
14Kluczbork11−812
15Polonia Nysa13−1112
16Ślęza Wrocław12−1010
17Rakow II11−79
18Carina Gubin12−149

The competition's standings before kick-off.