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ROW Rybnik v Ślęza Wrocław

ROW Rybnik

2–1Full time

Ślęza Wrocław

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

ROW Rybnik 2–1 Ślęza Wrocław ROW RYBNIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said ROW Rybnik win~~53%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.217

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ROW Rybnik win at 53%.
4′Little has changed for our model: ROW Rybnik 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
4′KICK-OFF ROW Rybnik v Ślęza Wrocław
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' ROW Rybnik 1–0 Ślęza Wrocław
26′A goal for ROW Rybnik on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–16–10
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' ROW Rybnik win: 53% at kick-off, 73% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' ROW Rybnik win: 53% at kick-off, 52% now
30′N. Juraszczyk scores for ROW Rybnik on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' ROW Rybnik win: 53% at kick-off, 73% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' ROW Rybnik win: 53% at kick-off, 52% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' ROW Rybnik 1–1 Ślęza Wrocław
45′HALF-TIME ROW Rybnik 1–1 Ślęza Wrocław
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' ROW Rybnik win: 53% at kick-off, 73% now
46′SECOND HALF ROW Rybnik 1–1 Ślęza Wrocław
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' ROW Rybnik 2–1 Ślęza Wrocław
FTFULL TIME ROW Rybnik 2–1 Ślęza Wrocław
FTROW Rybnik 2–1 Ślęza Wrocław · ROW Rybnik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ROW Rybnik win53%

Draw20%

Ślęza Wrocław win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · row rybnik winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

53% The market62%

Us53%

~~Market~~62%

We make ROW Rybnik a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · row rybnik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ROW Rybnik win	53%	62%	−9
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Ślęza Wrocław win	27%	17%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	73%	66%	+7
Both teams to score	70%	61%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	89%	83%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	52%	46%	+7
ROW Rybnik or draw	73%	83%	−10
ROW Rybnik clean sheet	21%	–	–
Ślęza Wrocław clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.5 3.6 2.8 1 5.1 7.8 6.0 3.2 2 5.6 8.5 6.6 3.5 3 4.1 6.3 4.9 2.6 4 2.3 3.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ROW Rybnik down, Ślęza Wrocław across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

ROW Rybnik at home: 3.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ślęza Wrocław away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for ROW Rybnik, 1.57 for Ślęza Wrocław. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

ROW RYBNIK

LLDDWW1–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 4–3 · 1–0

ŚLĘZA WROCŁAW

WLLLDW3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–5 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Katowice	11	+12	24
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	11	+10	23
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	11	+7	23
4	Barycz Sułów	11	+5	20
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	10	+6	19
6	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
7	ROW Rybnik	11	+5	17
8	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
9	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	11	+3	15
10	Miedź Legnica II	11	+4	14
11	Warta Gorzów	11	−6	14
12	Kluczbork	10	−7	12
13	Stal Brzeg	11	+1	11
14	Goczałkowice Zdrój	11	−5	11
15	Ślęza Wrocław	11	−9	10
16	Rakow II	9	−5	9
17	Polonia Nysa	11	−12	8
18	Carina Gubin	11	−14	8