ROW Rybnik v Polonia Nysa prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ROW RybnikDrawPolonia Nysa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · ROW Rybnik 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ROW Rybnik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ROW Rybnik 57%, draw 20%, Polonia Nysa 23%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on ROW Rybnik v Polonia NysaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ROW Rybnik win57%

Draw20%

Polonia Nysa win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ROW Rybnik

Polonia Nysa

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 16 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · row rybnik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

57% The market54%

Us57%

~~Market~~54%

We make ROW Rybnik a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ROW Rybnik v Polonia Nysa~~2.21 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 12~~6 v 16

~~The market · ROW Rybnik win~~54% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ROW Rybnik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ROW Rybnik win	57%	54%	+3
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Polonia Nysa win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	60%	+8
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	80%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	47%	41%	+6
ROW Rybnik or draw	77%	78%	−1
ROW Rybnik clean sheet	27%	–	–
Polonia Nysa clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.2 4.0 2.6 1 6.7 8.5 5.6 2.5 2 7.2 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 5.3 6.7 4.4 4 2.9 3.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ROW Rybnik down, Polonia Nysa across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

ROW Rybnik at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Nysa away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for ROW Rybnik, 1.32 for Polonia Nysa. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

ROW RYBNIK

DDWWWL2–2 · 0–0 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

POLONIA NYSA

LLWLWD1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	+2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	−3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10