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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 3 › Polonia Nysa v Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

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Polonia Nysa v Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Polonia Nysa
2–2Full time
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

III Liga - Group 3 · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01
Polonia Nysa 2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra KARKONOSZE JELENIA GÓRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win40%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.838
The market’s Brier score0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win at 40%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Polonia Nysa v Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  4. 28′Polonia Nysa find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–23–14
  5. 28′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–23–14
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Polonia Nysa 1–0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
  8. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Polonia Nysa win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 14%)
  9. 29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' Polonia Nysa
  10. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
  11. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Polonia Nysa win 29%)
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Polonia Nysa 0–0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Polonia Nysa 0–0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  14. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  15. 55′Karkonosze Jelenia Góra find the net on 55′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
  16. 55′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
  17. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Polonia Nysa 0–1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  18. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
  19. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
  20. 57′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  21. 59′A goal for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra on 59′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  22. 59′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  23. 59′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  24. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Polonia Nysa 0–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  25. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 95% now
  26. 60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  27. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 76% now
  28. 68′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  29. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
  30. 76′A goal for Polonia Nysa on 76′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–68–17
  31. 76′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 15–68–17
  32. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Polonia Nysa 1–1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  33. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
  34. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 17%)
  35. 78′Karkonosze Jelenia Góra score on 78′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
  36. 78′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
  37. 78′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–12–87
  38. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Polonia Nysa 1–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  39. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
  40. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
  41. 82′77′: M. Baszak on the scoresheet for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  42. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  43. 83′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
  44. 90′Polonia Nysa find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 4–91–4
  45. 90′We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–91–4
  46. 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 4–91–4
  47. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Polonia Nysa 2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  48. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
  49. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 4%)
  50. FTFULL TIME Polonia Nysa 2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
  51. FTPolonia Nysa 2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polonia Nysa 35%, draw 25%, Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 40%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Polonia Nysa v Karkonosze Jelenia GóraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Polonia Nysa win35%
Draw25%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win40%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polonia Nysa

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Karkonosze Jelenia Góra12+418
15Polonia Nysa12−1111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karkonosze jelenia góra winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off
40% The market42%
Us40%
Market42%

We make Karkonosze Jelenia Góra a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Polonia Nysa v Karkonosze Jelenia Góra1.31 – 1.44
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 11 v 1815 v 8
The market · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5816 OCT 17:40
Our probability · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Polonia Nysa win35%32%+3
Draw25%26%−1
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win40%42%−2
Over 2.5 goals52%54%−2
Both teams to score55%58%−3
Over 1.5 goals76%77%−1
Over 3.5 goals30%33%−3
Polonia Nysa or draw60%58%+2
Polonia Nysa clean sheet24%––
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 6.6 9.3 6.6 3.2 1 8.5 11.8 8.4 4.1 2 5.5 7.7 5.5 2.7 3 2.5 3.4 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Polonia Nysa down, Karkonosze Jelenia Góra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsKAR 3–1 POL · POL 0–4 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

POLONIA NYSA

LLLWLW0–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

KARKONOSZE JELENIA GÓRA

LWLWLW0–1 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec12+825
2Sparta Katowice12+1124
3Zagłębie Lubin II12+1024
4Odra Bytom Odrzański12+724
5Barycz Sułów12+521
6ROW Rybnik12+620
7Górnik Polkowice12+418
8Karkonosze Jelenia Góra12+418
9Miedź Legnica II12+517
10Stilon Gorzów12+116
11Warta Gorzów12−714
12Stal Brzeg12+112
13Goczałkowice Zdrój12−512
14Kluczbork11−812
15Polonia Nysa12−1111
16Ślęza Wrocław12−1010
17Rakow II11−79
18Carina Gubin12−149

The competition's standings before kick-off.