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Odra Bytom Odrzański v Zagłębie Lubin II

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1–1Full time

Zagłębie Lubin II

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin II ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Zagłębie Lubin II win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.887

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zagłębie Lubin II win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Zagłębie Lubin II was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
3′Much as we predicted: Zagłębie Lubin II was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
23′19′ and it is 1–0: Odra Bytom Odrzański have scored. 1–0 · 59–23–18
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 18%)
45′HALF-TIME Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin II
46′SECOND HALF Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin II
FTFULL TIME Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin II
FTOdra Bytom Odrzański 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin II · Zagłębie Lubin II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Odra Bytom Odrzański win32%

Draw23%

Zagłębie Lubin II win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zagłębie lubin ii winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Zagłębie Lubin II a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zagłębie lubin ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odra Bytom Odrzański win	32%	35%	−3
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Zagłębie Lubin II win	44%	39%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw	56%	61%	−6
Odra Bytom Odrzański clean sheet	19%	–	–
Zagłębie Lubin II clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 7.6 6.4 3.7 1 6.4 10.6 8.8 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.4 6.2 3.5 3 2.2 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odra Bytom Odrzański down, Zagłębie Lubin II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zagłębie Lubin II away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Odra Bytom Odrzański, 1.70 for Zagłębie Lubin II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

ODRA BYTOM ODRZAŃSKI

DWDWWL0–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II

WWDWDD2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Katowice	11	+12	24
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	11	+10	23
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	11	+7	23
4	Barycz Sułów	11	+5	20
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	10	+6	19
6	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
7	ROW Rybnik	11	+5	17
8	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
9	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	11	+3	15
10	Miedź Legnica II	11	+4	14
11	Warta Gorzów	11	−6	14
12	Kluczbork	10	−7	12
13	Stal Brzeg	11	+1	11
14	Goczałkowice Zdrój	11	−5	11
15	Ślęza Wrocław	11	−9	10
16	Rakow II	9	−5	9
17	Polonia Nysa	11	−12	8
18	Carina Gubin	11	−14	8