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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 3 › Odra Bytom Odrzański v Stal Brzeg

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Odra Bytom Odrzański v Stal Brzeg

Odra Bytom Odrzański
3–2Full time
Stal Brzeg

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3–2 Stal Brzeg ODRA BYTOM ODRZAŃSKI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Odra Bytom Odrzański win45%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.453
The market’s Brier score0.317

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Odra Bytom Odrzański win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Odra Bytom Odrzański was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Odra Bytom Odrzański v Stal Brzeg
  4. 12′Stal Brzeg score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–24–57
  5. 12′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
  6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–1 Stal Brzeg
  7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Stal Brzeg win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Odra Bytom Odrzański win 43%)
  9. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–61
  11. 31′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  12. 38′Stal Brzeg find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  13. 38′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  14. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–2 Stal Brzeg
  15. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–2 Stal Brzeg
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–2 Stal Brzeg
  18. 48′A goal for Odra Bytom Odrzański on 47′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–24–66
  19. 48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 10–24–66
  20. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–2 Stal Brzeg
  21. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 10% now
  22. 49′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  23. 53′Odra Bytom Odrzański score on 53′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 32–47–22
  24. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Odra Bytom Odrzański 2–2 Stal Brzeg
  25. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
  26. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Stal Brzeg win 68%)
  27. 54′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 31–47–21
  28. 54′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 31–47–21
  29. 58′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–50–20
  30. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  31. 67′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–59–17
  32. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  33. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  34. 92′Odra Bytom Odrzański find the net on 90′. 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  35. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Odra Bytom Odrzański 3–2 Stal Brzeg
  36. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
  37. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 94%)
  38. 93′We published Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  39. 93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Odra Bytom Odrzański 3–2 Stal Brzeg
  41. FTOdra Bytom Odrzański 3–2 Stal Brzeg · Odra Bytom Odrzański win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Odra Bytom Odrzański are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Odra Bytom Odrzański 45%, draw 27%, Stal Brzeg 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Odra Bytom Odrzański v Stal BrzegBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Odra Bytom Odrzański win45%
Draw27%
Stal Brzeg win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odra Bytom Odrzański

Stal Brzeg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Odra Bytom Odrzański13+725
11Stal Brzeg13+315

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · odra bytom odrzański winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off
45% The market54%
Us45%
Market54%

We make Odra Bytom Odrzański a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Odra Bytom Odrzański v Stal Brzeg1.39 – 1.03
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 11 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 25 v 153 v 11
The market · Odra Bytom Odrzański win54% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:07
Our probability · Odra Bytom Odrzański win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Odra Bytom Odrzański win45%54%−9
Draw27%24%+3
Stal Brzeg win28%22%+6
Over 2.5 goals43%56%−13
Both teams to score47%56%−9
Over 1.5 goals69%77%−8
Over 3.5 goals23%35%−12
Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw72%78%−6
Odra Bytom Odrzański clean sheet36%––
Stal Brzeg clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%
0123450 9.4 9.3 4.7 1 12.5 12.4 6.4 2.2 2 8.5 8.5 4.4 3 4.0 4.0 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Odra Bytom Odrzański down, Stal Brzeg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsODR 1–1 STA · STA 0–1 ODR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept

ODRA BYTOM ODRZAŃSKI

DWWLDD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

STAL BRZEG

LWLLDW0–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec14+1131
2Sparta Katowice13+1327
3Odra Bytom Odrzański13+725
4Zagłębie Lubin II13+924
5Górnik Polkowice14+521
6Barycz Sułów13+321
7ROW Rybnik13+420
8Karkonosze Jelenia Góra13+419
9Miedź Legnica II14+117
10Stilon Gorzów13+117
11Stal Brzeg13+315
12Goczałkowice Zdrój14−615
13Kluczbork12−615
14Warta Gorzów13−814
15Rakow II12−612
16Polonia Nysa13−1112
17Carina Gubin13−1212
18Ślęza Wrocław13−1210

The competition's standings before kick-off.