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Odra Bytom Odrzański v Stal Brzeg
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Stal BrzegIII Liga - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Odra Bytom Odrzański win at 45%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Odra Bytom Odrzański was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
- 1′KICK-OFF Odra Bytom Odrzański v Stal Brzeg
- 12′Stal Brzeg score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–24–57
- 12′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–1 Stal Brzeg
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
- 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Stal Brzeg win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Odra Bytom Odrzański win 43%)
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–61
- 31′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
- 38′Stal Brzeg find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
- 38′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
- 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–2 Stal Brzeg
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–2 Stal Brzeg
- 46′SECOND HALF Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–2 Stal Brzeg
- 48′A goal for Odra Bytom Odrzański on 47′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–24–66
- 48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 10–24–66
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–2 Stal Brzeg
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 10% now
- 49′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
- 53′Odra Bytom Odrzański score on 53′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 32–47–22
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Odra Bytom Odrzański 2–2 Stal Brzeg
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Stal Brzeg win 68%)
- 54′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 31–47–21
- 54′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 31–47–21
- 58′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–50–20
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
- 67′We said Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–59–17
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
- 92′Odra Bytom Odrzański find the net on 90′. 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
- 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Odra Bytom Odrzański 3–2 Stal Brzeg
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Odra Bytom Odrzański win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
- 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Odra Bytom Odrzański win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 94%)
- 93′We published Odra Bytom Odrzański at 45%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
- 93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 98–2–0
- FTFULL TIME Odra Bytom Odrzański 3–2 Stal Brzeg
- FTOdra Bytom Odrzański 3–2 Stal Brzeg · Odra Bytom Odrzański win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Odra Bytom Odrzański are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Odra Bytom Odrzański 45%, draw 27%, Stal Brzeg 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Odra Bytom Odrzański win45%
Stal Brzeg win28%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00
RoundGroup III · matchday 14
Match timeline
All events
Odra Bytom OdrzańskiMIN
Stal BrzegEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Stal Brzeg
Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Odra Bytom Odrzański a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odra Bytom Odrzański win | 45% | 54% | −9 |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | +3 |
| Stal Brzeg win | 28% | 22% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 56% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 56% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 77% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 35% | −12 |
| Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw | 72% | 78% | −6 |
| Odra Bytom Odrzański clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Stal Brzeg clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept
ODRA BYTOM ODRZAŃSKI
STAL BRZEG
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | +11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 13 | +7 | 25 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | +9 | 24 |
| 5 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | Barycz Sułów | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 | ROW Rybnik | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stal Brzeg | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | −6 | 15 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 12 | −6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 13 | −8 | 14 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 12 | −6 | 12 |
| 16 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | −11 | 12 |
| 17 | Carina Gubin | 13 | −12 | 12 |
| 18 | Ślęza Wrocław | 13 | −12 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Sparta Katowice
Zagłębie Lubin II
Górnik Polkowice
Barycz Sułów
ROW Rybnik
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Miedź Legnica II
Stilon Gorzów
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Kluczbork
Warta Gorzów
Rakow II
Polonia Nysa
Carina Gubin
Ślęza Wrocław