Miedź Legnica II v Warta Gorzów prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Miedź Legnica IIDrawWarta Gorzów

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Miedź Legnica II 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Miedź Legnica II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Miedź Legnica II 52%, draw 22%, Warta Gorzów 26%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Miedź Legnica II v Warta GorzówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

Miedź Legnica II win52%

Draw22%

Warta Gorzów win26%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Miedź Legnica II

Warta Gorzów

7Days since last match13

Last match: 23 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · miedź legnica ii winFirst published 24 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Miedź Legnica II a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Miedź Legnica II v Warta Gorzów~~2.01 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 14~~9 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Miedź Legnica II win	52%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Warta Gorzów win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Miedź Legnica II or draw	74%	–	–
Miedź Legnica II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Warta Gorzów clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.6 4.8 3.3 1 7.0 9.3 6.4 2.9 2 6.9 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.6 6.1 4.2 4 2.3 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Miedź Legnica II down, Warta Gorzów across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Miedź Legnica II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Warta Gorzów away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Miedź Legnica II, 1.37 for Warta Gorzów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MIE 2–0 WAR · WAR 1–0 MIE · MIE 2–2 WAR · WAR 1–2 MIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

MIEDŹ LEGNICA II

WLWWLL5–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

WARTA GORZÓW

WLDDLL1–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Górnik Polkowice	14	+5	21
6	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
7	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
8	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	−6	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10