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Miedź Legnica II v Rakow II

Miedź Legnica II
2–1Full time
Rakow II

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08
Miedź Legnica II 2–1 Rakow II MIEDŹ LEGNICA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Miedź Legnica II win60%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.238
The market’s Brier score0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Miedź Legnica II win at 60%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Miedź Legnica II was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–19–21
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Miedź Legnica II v Rakow II
  4. 7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Miedź Legnica II 0–1 Rakow II
  5. 12′6′ and it is 0–1: D. Kabala on the scoresheet for Rakow II. 0–1 · 36–22–42
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Miedź Legnica II win: 60% at kick-off, 36% now
  7. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Rakow II win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Miedź Legnica II win 36%)
  8. 23′We said Miedź Legnica II at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–24–44
  9. 33′We said Miedź Legnica II at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–25–47
  10. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Miedź Legnica II win: 60% at kick-off, 28% now
  11. 44′We said Miedź Legnica II at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–27–51
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Miedź Legnica II 0–1 Rakow II
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Miedź Legnica II 0–1 Rakow II
  14. 57′We said Miedź Legnica II at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–27–57
  15. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Miedź Legnica II win: 60% at kick-off, 16% now
  16. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Miedź Legnica II 1–1 Rakow II
  17. 71′PENALTY MISSED · 68' Miedź Legnica II
  18. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Miedź Legnica II 2–1 Rakow II
  19. FTFULL TIME Miedź Legnica II 2–1 Rakow II
  20. FTMiedź Legnica II 2–1 Rakow II · Miedź Legnica II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Miedź Legnica II win60%
Draw19%
Rakow II win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · miedź legnica ii winPublished 10 Oct 10:08
60% The market58%
Us60%
Market58%

We make Miedź Legnica II a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:2010 OCT 03:58
Our probability · miedź legnica ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Miedź Legnica II win60%58%+2
Draw19%22%−3
Rakow II win21%20%+1
Over 2.5 goals74%66%+8
Both teams to score68%63%+5
Over 1.5 goals89%83%+6
Over 3.5 goals54%46%+8
Miedź Legnica II or draw79%80%−1
Miedź Legnica II clean sheet25%––
Rakow II clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%
0123450 2.3 3.1 2.2 1 5.3 7.3 5.1 2.4 2 6.3 8.6 6.0 2.9 3 5.1 7.0 4.9 2.3 4 3.2 4.3 3.0 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Miedź Legnica II down, Rakow II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

MIEDŹ LEGNICA II

DWWWLW2–2 · 4–2 · 5–0 · 5–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

RAKOW II

LLDWDW1–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sparta Katowice11+1224
2Zagłębie Lubin II11+1023
3Odra Bytom Odrzański11+723
4Barycz Sułów11+520
5Zaglebie Sosnowiec10+619
6Górnik Polkowice12+418
7ROW Rybnik11+517
8Stilon Gorzów12+116
9Karkonosze Jelenia Góra11+315
10Miedź Legnica II11+414
11Warta Gorzów11−614
12Kluczbork10−712
13Stal Brzeg11+111
14Goczałkowice Zdrój11−511
15Ślęza Wrocław11−910
16Rakow II9−59
17Polonia Nysa11−128
18Carina Gubin11−148

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.