Kluczbork v Miedź Legnica II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Kluczbork 2–0 Miedź Legnica II KLUCZBORK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kluczbork win~~48%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kluczbork win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kluczbork was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–31
1′KICK-OFF Kluczbork v Miedź Legnica II
45′HALF-TIME Kluczbork 0–0 Miedź Legnica II
46′SECOND HALF Kluczbork 0–0 Miedź Legnica II
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Kluczbork win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
51′Kluczbork score on 50′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
51′We published Kluczbork at 48%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Kluczbork 1–0 Miedź Legnica II
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Kluczbork win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
57′We published Kluczbork at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
66′Kluczbork find the net on 65′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
66′We published Kluczbork at 48%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kluczbork 2–0 Miedź Legnica II
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Kluczbork win: 48% at kick-off, 96% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Kluczbork win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
84′We published Kluczbork at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Kluczbork 2–0 Miedź Legnica II
FTKluczbork 2–0 Miedź Legnica II · Kluczbork win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kluczbork are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kluczbork 48%, draw 22%, Miedź Legnica II 31%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Kluczbork v Miedź Legnica IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kluczbork win48%

Draw22%

Miedź Legnica II win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kluczbork

Miedź Legnica II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Miedź Legnica II	12	+5	17
15	Kluczbork	11	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kluczbork winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market30%

Us48%

~~Market~~30%

We make Kluczbork a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kluczbork v Miedź Legnica II~~1.98 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 17~~15 v 9

~~The market · Kluczbork win~~30% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kluczbork win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kluczbork win	48%	30%	+18
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Miedź Legnica II win	31%	45%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	68%	61%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	47%	41%	+6
Kluczbork or draw	69%	55%	+14
Kluczbork clean sheet	22%	–	–
Miedź Legnica II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.1 4.7 3.6 1 5.9 8.9 6.9 3.6 2 5.8 8.7 6.7 3.5 3 3.8 5.7 4.4 2.3 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kluczbork down, Miedź Legnica II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,622 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kluczbork at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Miedź Legnica II away: 2.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Kluczbork, 1.56 for Miedź Legnica II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MIE 3–1 KLU · KLU 3–1 MIE · MIE 1–4 KLU · KLU 2–1 MIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 28 Aug

KLUCZBORK

WLWLLL1–0 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

MIEDŹ LEGNICA II

WWWLWW4–2 · 5–0 · 5–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	13	+9	28
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
4	Odra Bytom Odrzański	12	+7	24
5	Barycz Sułów	12	+5	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	12	+5	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
11	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
12	Stal Brzeg	12	+1	12
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	12	−5	12
14	Rakow II	12	−6	12
15	Kluczbork	11	−8	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Ślęza Wrocław	12	−10	10
18	Carina Gubin	12	−14	9