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Karkonosze Jelenia Góra v Sparta Katowice

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1–0Full time

Sparta Katowice

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–0 Sparta Katowice SPARTA KATOWICE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Katowice win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win31%

Draw28%

Sparta Katowice win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta katowice winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Sparta Katowice a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win	31%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Sparta Katowice win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw	59%	–	–
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sparta Katowice clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.0 12.3 7.9 3.4 1 10.2 12.9 8.2 3.5 2 5.4 6.8 4.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karkonosze Jelenia Góra down, Sparta Katowice across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Katowice away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, 1.28 for Sparta Katowice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPA 3–1 KAR · KAR 1–0 SPA

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

KARKONOSZE JELENIA GÓRA

DLWLWL0–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

SPARTA KATOWICE

WWDWWD1–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Katowice	11	+12	24
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	11	+10	23
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	11	+7	23
4	Barycz Sułów	11	+5	20
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	10	+6	19
6	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
7	ROW Rybnik	11	+5	17
8	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
9	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	11	+3	15
10	Miedź Legnica II	11	+4	14
11	Warta Gorzów	11	−6	14
12	Kluczbork	10	−7	12
13	Stal Brzeg	11	+1	11
14	Goczałkowice Zdrój	11	−5	11
15	Ślęza Wrocław	11	−9	10
16	Rakow II	9	−5	9
17	Polonia Nysa	11	−12	8
18	Carina Gubin	11	−14	8