Karkonosze Jelenia Góra v Rakow II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3–1 Rakow II KARKONOSZE JELENIA GÓRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.399

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win at 48%.
2′Much as we predicted: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–27
2′KICK-OFF Karkonosze Jelenia Góra v Rakow II
30′A goal for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
30′We published Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 48%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–0 Rakow II
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
36′Karkonosze Jelenia Góra score on 36′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
36′We published Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 48%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2–0 Rakow II
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 48% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2–0 Rakow II
46′SECOND HALF Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2–0 Rakow II
50′We published Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
59′Karkonosze Jelenia Góra find the net on 58′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3–0 Rakow II
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
60′We published Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′A goal for Rakow II on 74′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3–1 Rakow II
75′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
92′A red card for Rakow II on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Rakow II
FTFULL TIME Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3–1 Rakow II
FTKarkonosze Jelenia Góra 3–1 Rakow II · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 48%, draw 24%, Rakow II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Karkonosze Jelenia Góra v Rakow IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win48%

Draw24%

Rakow II win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Rakow II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karkonosze jelenia góra winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Karkonosze Jelenia Góra a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra v Rakow II~~1.67 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~7 v 15

~~The market · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win~~47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Rakow II win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw	73%	72%	+1
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rakow II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.0 6.9 4.1 1 9.6 11.2 6.6 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 4.5 5.2 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karkonosze Jelenia Góra down, Rakow II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rakow II away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, 1.19 for Rakow II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

KARKONOSZE JELENIA GÓRA

WLWLWD4–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

RAKOW II

WDWLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	+2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	−3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10