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Górnik Polkowice v Goczałkowice Zdrój
Górnik Polkowice
Goczałkowice ZdrójIII Liga - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Górnik Polkowice win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Górnik Polkowice 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
- 1′KICK-OFF Górnik Polkowice v Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 3′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–10
- 3′Górnik Polkowice score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–10
- 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Górnik Polkowice 1–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
- 23′Górnik Polkowice find the net on 23′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 23′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
- 44′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′HALF-TIME Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 46′SECOND HALF Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 54′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
- 63′A goal for Goczałkowice Zdrój on 62′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–3
- 63′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–3
- 63′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–3
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Górnik Polkowice 2–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
- 72′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 85′Goczałkowice Zdrój are down to ten from 84′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 94–6–0
- 85′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 89′Górnik Polkowice score on 88′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 89′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 89′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Górnik Polkowice 3–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 92′Górnik Polkowice find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 92′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- FTFULL TIME Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
- FTGórnik Polkowice 4–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój · Górnik Polkowice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Górnik Polkowice are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Górnik Polkowice 50%, draw 25%, Goczałkowice Zdrój 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Górnik Polkowice win50%
Goczałkowice Zdrój win26%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00
RoundGroup III · matchday 14
Match timeline
All events
Górnik PolkowiceMIN
Goczałkowice ZdrójEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Górnik Polkowice
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Górnik Polkowice a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Górnik Polkowice win | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 0 |
| Goczałkowice Zdrój win | 26% | 26% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 35% | −6 |
| Górnik Polkowice or draw | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Górnik Polkowice clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Goczałkowice Zdrój clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept
GÓRNIK POLKOWICE
GOCZAŁKOWICE ZDRÓJ
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | +11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 13 | +7 | 25 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | +9 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stal Brzeg | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 13 | −3 | 15 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 12 | −6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 13 | −8 | 14 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 12 | −6 | 12 |
| 16 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | −11 | 12 |
| 17 | Carina Gubin | 13 | −12 | 12 |
| 18 | Ślęza Wrocław | 13 | −12 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Sparta Katowice
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Zagłębie Lubin II
Barycz Sułów
ROW Rybnik
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Miedź Legnica II
Stilon Gorzów
Stal Brzeg
Kluczbork
Warta Gorzów
Rakow II
Polonia Nysa
Carina Gubin
Ślęza Wrocław