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Górnik Polkowice v Goczałkowice Zdrój

Górnik Polkowice
4–1Full time
Goczałkowice Zdrój

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój GÓRNIK POLKOWICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Górnik Polkowice win50%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.377
The market’s Brier score0.387

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Górnik Polkowice win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Górnik Polkowice 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Górnik Polkowice v Goczałkowice Zdrój
  4. 3′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–10
  5. 3′Górnik Polkowice score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–10
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Górnik Polkowice 1–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 23′Górnik Polkowice find the net on 23′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  9. 23′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
  12. 44′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  15. 54′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  16. 63′A goal for Goczałkowice Zdrój on 62′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–3
  17. 63′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–3
  18. 63′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–3
  19. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Górnik Polkowice 2–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  20. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
  21. 72′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  22. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  23. 85′Goczałkowice Zdrój are down to ten from 84′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  24. 85′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Goczałkowice Zdrój
  25. 89′Górnik Polkowice score on 88′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 89′We said Górnik Polkowice at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  27. 89′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  28. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Górnik Polkowice 3–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  29. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Górnik Polkowice win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  30. 92′Górnik Polkowice find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 92′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  33. FTFULL TIME Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój
  34. FTGórnik Polkowice 4–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój · Górnik Polkowice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Górnik Polkowice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Górnik Polkowice 50%, draw 25%, Goczałkowice Zdrój 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Górnik Polkowice v Goczałkowice ZdrójBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Górnik Polkowice win50%
Draw25%
Goczałkowice Zdrój win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Górnik Polkowice

Goczałkowice Zdrój

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Górnik Polkowice13+218
12Goczałkowice Zdrój13−315

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · górnik polkowice winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off
50% The market49%
Us50%
Market49%

We make Górnik Polkowice a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Górnik Polkowice v Goczałkowice Zdrój1.63 – 1.08
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 18 v 158 v 12
The market · Górnik Polkowice win49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:51
Our probability · Górnik Polkowice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Górnik Polkowice win50%49%+1
Draw25%25%0
Goczałkowice Zdrój win26%26%0
Over 2.5 goals51%56%−5
Both teams to score52%58%−6
Over 1.5 goals75%77%−2
Over 3.5 goals29%35%−6
Górnik Polkowice or draw74%74%0
Górnik Polkowice clean sheet34%––
Goczałkowice Zdrój clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.9 7.3 4.0 1 10.9 11.6 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.3 5.0 3 4.8 5.1 2.7 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Górnik Polkowice down, Goczałkowice Zdrój across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsGOR 0–0 GOC · GOC 0–0 GOR · GOC 2–1 GOR · GOR 0–0 GOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

GÓRNIK POLKOWICE

LLLDWL1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–2

GOCZAŁKOWICE ZDRÓJ

LWLLDW0–5 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec14+1131
2Sparta Katowice13+1327
3Odra Bytom Odrzański13+725
4Zagłębie Lubin II13+924
5Barycz Sułów13+321
6ROW Rybnik13+420
7Karkonosze Jelenia Góra13+419
8Górnik Polkowice13+218
9Miedź Legnica II14+117
10Stilon Gorzów13+117
11Stal Brzeg13+315
12Goczałkowice Zdrój13−315
13Kluczbork12−615
14Warta Gorzów13−814
15Rakow II12−612
16Polonia Nysa13−1112
17Carina Gubin13−1212
18Ślęza Wrocław13−1210

The competition's standings before kick-off.