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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 3 › Goczałkowice Zdrój v Barycz Sułów

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Goczałkowice Zdrój v Barycz Sułów

Goczałkowice Zdrój
3–1Full time
Barycz Sułów

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3–1 Barycz Sułów GOCZAŁKOWICE ZDRÓJ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Goczałkowice Zdrój win38%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.579
The market’s Brier score0.656

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Goczałkowice Zdrój win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Goczałkowice Zdrój 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Goczałkowice Zdrój v Barycz Sułów
  4. 2′A goal for Goczałkowice Zdrój on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
  5. 2′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
  6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Goczałkowice Zdrój 1–0 Barycz Sułów
  7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Goczałkowice Zdrój win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
  8. 21′Barycz Sułów score on 20′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–32–33
  9. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Goczałkowice Zdrój 1–1 Barycz Sułów
  10. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Goczałkowice Zdrój win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
  11. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Goczałkowice Zdrój win 32%)
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Goczałkowice Zdrój 1–1 Barycz Sułów
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Goczałkowice Zdrój 1–1 Barycz Sułów
  14. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Goczałkowice Zdrój win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  15. 57′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–49–25
  16. 58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 26–50–24
  17. 62′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
  18. 70′Goczałkowice Zdrój find the net on 70′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
  19. 70′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
  20. 70′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–2
  21. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–1 Barycz Sułów
  22. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Goczałkowice Zdrój win: 38% at kick-off, 82% now
  23. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Goczałkowice Zdrój win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
  24. 75′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–1
  25. 78′A goal for Barycz Sułów on 78′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 13–74–13
  26. 78′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–74–13
  27. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–2 Barycz Sułów
  28. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Goczałkowice Zdrój win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
  29. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Goczałkowice Zdrój win 13%)
  30. 79′GOAL DISALLOWED · 79' Barycz Sułów
  31. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Goczałkowice Zdrój win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
  32. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Goczałkowice Zdrój win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  33. 81′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  34. 88′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  35. 90′A goal for Goczałkowice Zdrój on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 90′We said Goczałkowice Zdrój at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Goczałkowice Zdrój 3–1 Barycz Sułów
  38. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Goczałkowice Zdrój win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
  39. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Goczałkowice Zdrój 3–1 Barycz Sułów
  41. FTGoczałkowice Zdrój 3–1 Barycz Sułów · Goczałkowice Zdrój win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Goczałkowice Zdrój just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Goczałkowice Zdrój 38%, draw 27%, Barycz Sułów 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Goczałkowice Zdrój v Barycz SułówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Goczałkowice Zdrój win38%
Draw27%
Barycz Sułów win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Goczałkowice Zdrój

Barycz Sułów

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Barycz Sułów12+521
13Goczałkowice Zdrój12−512

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · goczałkowice zdrój winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
38% The market34%
Us38%
Market34%

We make Goczałkowice Zdrój a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Goczałkowice Zdrój v Barycz Sułów1.28 – 1.21
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 12 v 2113 v 5
The market · Goczałkowice Zdrój win34% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 11:45
Our probability · Goczałkowice Zdrój win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Goczałkowice Zdrój win38%34%+4
Draw27%27%0
Barycz Sułów win35%39%−4
Over 2.5 goals45%55%−10
Both teams to score50%59%−9
Over 1.5 goals71%77%−6
Over 3.5 goals24%34%−10
Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw65%61%+4
Goczałkowice Zdrój clean sheet30%––
Barycz Sułów clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 8.6 10.1 6.1 2.5 1 10.7 12.6 7.6 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.8 3 2.9 3.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Goczałkowice Zdrój down, Barycz Sułów across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

GOCZAŁKOWICE ZDRÓJ

WLWLLD3–0 · 0–5 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

BARYCZ SUŁÓW

WWLDLD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec12+825
2Sparta Katowice12+1124
3Zagłębie Lubin II12+1024
4Odra Bytom Odrzański12+724
5Barycz Sułów12+521
6ROW Rybnik12+620
7Karkonosze Jelenia Góra13+419
8Górnik Polkowice12+418
9Miedź Legnica II12+517
10Stilon Gorzów12+116
11Warta Gorzów12−714
12Stal Brzeg12+112
13Goczałkowice Zdrój12−512
14Kluczbork11−812
15Polonia Nysa13−1112
16Ślęza Wrocław12−1010
17Rakow II11−79
18Carina Gubin12−149

The competition's standings before kick-off.