Carina Gubin v Sparta Katowice prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Carina Gubin 1–3 Sparta Katowice SPARTA KATOWICE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Katowice win~~44%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.479

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Katowice are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Carina Gubin 29%, draw 27%, Sparta Katowice 44%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Carina Gubin v Sparta KatowiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Carina Gubin win29%

Draw27%

Sparta Katowice win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Carina Gubin

Sparta Katowice

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta katowice winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market60%

Us44%

~~Market~~60%

We make Sparta Katowice a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Carina Gubin v Sparta Katowice~~1.03 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 27~~17 v 2

~~The market · Sparta Katowice win~~60% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sparta Katowice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carina Gubin win	29%	17%	+12
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Sparta Katowice win	44%	60%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	42%	57%	−15
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	68%	78%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	22%	37%	−15
Carina Gubin or draw	56%	40%	+16
Carina Gubin clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sparta Katowice clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.7 12.6 8.3 3.8 1 9.7 12.7 8.4 3.8 2 5.0 6.5 4.3 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carina Gubin down, Sparta Katowice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Carina Gubin at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Katowice away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Carina Gubin, 1.33 for Sparta Katowice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAR 1–1 SPA · SPA 1–1 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept

CARINA GUBIN

DLLWDW1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

SPARTA KATOWICE

DWWDLW1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	+2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	−3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10