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Barycz Sułów v Stal Brzeg

Barycz Sułów

1–1Full time

Stal Brzeg

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Barycz Sułów 1–1 Stal Brzeg BARYCZ SUŁÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Barycz Sułów win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.972

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Barycz Sułów win56%

Draw22%

Stal Brzeg win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barycz sułów winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Barycz Sułów a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barycz Sułów win	56%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Stal Brzeg win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Barycz Sułów or draw	79%	–	–
Barycz Sułów clean sheet	34%	–	–
Stal Brzeg clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.3 5.5 3.0 1 9.6 10.2 5.5 2.0 2 9.0 9.5 5.2 3 5.8 6.1 3.3 4 2.9 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barycz Sułów down, Stal Brzeg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Barycz Sułów at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stal Brzeg away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Barycz Sułów, 1.09 for Stal Brzeg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

BARYCZ SUŁÓW

WWWLDL1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–2

STAL BRZEG

LLLWLL0–1 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Katowice	11	+12	24
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	11	+10	23
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	11	+7	23
4	Barycz Sułów	11	+5	20
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	10	+6	19
6	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
7	ROW Rybnik	11	+5	17
8	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
9	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	11	+3	15
10	Miedź Legnica II	11	+4	14
11	Warta Gorzów	11	−6	14
12	Kluczbork	10	−7	12
13	Stal Brzeg	11	+1	11
14	Goczałkowice Zdrój	11	−5	11
15	Ślęza Wrocław	11	−9	10
16	Rakow II	9	−5	9
17	Polonia Nysa	11	−12	8
18	Carina Gubin	11	−14	8