Barycz Sułów v Ślęza Wrocław prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Barycz SułówDrawŚlęza Wrocław

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Barycz Sułów 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barycz Sułów are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barycz Sułów 51%, draw 22%, Ślęza Wrocław 27%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Barycz Sułów v Ślęza WrocławBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Barycz Sułów win51%

Draw22%

Ślęza Wrocław win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barycz Sułów

Ślęza Wrocław

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barycz sułów winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Barycz Sułów a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barycz Sułów v Ślęza Wrocław~~1.96 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 10~~6 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barycz Sułów win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Ślęza Wrocław win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Barycz Sułów or draw	73%	–	–
Barycz Sułów clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ślęza Wrocław clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 5.1 3.4 1 7.2 9.5 6.4 3.0 2 6.9 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.5 6.0 4.0 4 2.3 3.0 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barycz Sułów down, Ślęza Wrocław across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Barycz Sułów at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ślęza Wrocław away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Barycz Sułów, 1.37 for Ślęza Wrocław. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

BARYCZ SUŁÓW

WLDLDL2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

ŚLĘZA WROCŁAW

LLDWLL2–3 · 3–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Górnik Polkowice	14	+5	21
6	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
7	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
8	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	−6	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10