Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › III Liga - Group 2 › Wda Świecie v Flota Świnoujście

Back
Poland flag

Wda Świecie v Flota Świnoujście

Wda Świecie
1–0Full time
Flota Świnoujście

III Liga - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Wda Świecie 1–0 Flota Świnoujście WDA ŚWIECIE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wda Świecie win47%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.420
The market’s Brier score0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wda Świecie win at 47%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Wda Świecie 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–29
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Wda Świecie v Flota Świnoujście
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Wda Świecie 0–0 Flota Świnoujście
  5. 47′SECOND HALF Wda Świecie 0–0 Flota Świnoujście
  6. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Wda Świecie win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  7. 53′We said Wda Świecie at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–41–24
  8. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Wda Świecie win 35%)
  9. 55′We said Wda Świecie at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–23
  10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–42–23
  11. 65′We said Wda Świecie at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
  12. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Wda Świecie win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  13. 71′We said Wda Świecie at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–17
  14. 77′A goal for Wda Świecie on 76′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–1
  15. 77′We said Wda Świecie at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–1
  16. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Wda Świecie 1–0 Flota Świnoujście
  17. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Wda Świecie win: 47% at kick-off, 86% now
  18. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Wda Świecie win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
  19. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Wda Świecie win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  20. 83′We said Wda Świecie at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
  21. 88′We said Wda Świecie at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  22. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Wda Świecie win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  23. FTFULL TIME Wda Świecie 1–0 Flota Świnoujście
  24. FTWda Świecie 1–0 Flota Świnoujście · Wda Świecie win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wda Świecie are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wda Świecie 47%, draw 24%, Flota Świnoujście 29%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Wda Świecie v Flota ŚwinoujścieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wda Świecie win47%
Draw24%
Flota Świnoujście win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wda Świecie

Flota Świnoujście

4Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Wda Świecie12+121
14Flota Świnoujście12−614

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wda świecie winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market51%
Us47%
Market51%

We make Wda Świecie a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wda Świecie v Flota Świnoujście1.74 – 1.30
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 4 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 21 v 144 v 14
The market · Wda Świecie win51% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 12:46
Our probability · Wda Świecie win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wda Świecie win47%51%−4
Draw24%25%−1
Flota Świnoujście win29%25%+4
Over 2.5 goals58%58%0
Both teams to score59%60%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+2
Over 3.5 goals36%39%−3
Wda Świecie or draw71%75%−4
Wda Świecie clean sheet28%––
Flota Świnoujście clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 5.5 6.0 4.1 1 8.0 11.1 6.9 3.0 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.2 5.3 3.4 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wda Świecie down, Flota Świnoujście across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsFLO 0–3 WDA · WDA 2–1 FLO · FLO 2–1 WDA · WDA 0–1 FLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 4 Sept

WDA ŚWIECIE

WDLLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 4–1

FLOTA ŚWINOUJŚCIE

WDLLLL3–1 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa12+1930
2Luzino13+2028
3Kluczevia Stargard12+222
4Wda Świecie12+121
5Stargard Szczeciński13+719
6Bałtyk Koszalin13+319
7Lech Poznań II11+118
8Noteć Czarnków13017
9Kalisz13−217
10Grom Nowy Staw13+116
11Elana Toruń13−316
12Unia Swarzędz13+115
13Gedania Gdansk13015
14Flota Świnoujście12−614
15Chemik Bydgoszcz13−712
16Victoria Września13−1112
17Lipno Stęszew13−1011
18Kotwica Kórnik13−1611

The competition's standings before kick-off.