Victoria Września v Noteć Czarnków prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Victoria Września 0–1 Noteć Czarnków NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Noteć Czarnków win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.549

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.635

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Noteć Czarnków win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Noteć Czarnków was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Victoria Września v Noteć Czarnków
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Noteć Czarnków win 35%)
44′A goal for Noteć Czarnków on 44′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–20–72
44′We published Noteć Czarnków at 40%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 8–20–72
44′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Victoria Września 0–1 Noteć Czarnków
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Noteć Czarnków win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Noteć Czarnków win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 39%)
45′HALF-TIME Victoria Września 0–1 Noteć Czarnków
46′SECOND HALF Victoria Września 0–1 Noteć Czarnków
54′We published Noteć Czarnków at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
67′We published Noteć Czarnków at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Noteć Czarnków win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
75′We published Noteć Czarnków at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
81′We published Noteć Czarnków at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Noteć Czarnków win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
88′We published Noteć Czarnków at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Victoria Września 0–1 Noteć Czarnków
FTVictoria Września 0–1 Noteć Czarnków · Noteć Czarnków win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Noteć Czarnków are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Victoria Września 33%, draw 27%, Noteć Czarnków 40%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Victoria Września v Noteć CzarnkówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Victoria Września win33%

Draw27%

Noteć Czarnków win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Victoria Września

Noteć Czarnków

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · noteć czarnków winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Noteć Czarnków a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Victoria Września v Noteć Czarnków~~1.23 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 17~~16 v 8

~~The market · Noteć Czarnków win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Noteć Czarnków win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Victoria Września win	33%	38%	−5
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Noteć Czarnków win	40%	35%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Victoria Września or draw	60%	65%	−5
Victoria Września clean sheet	26%	–	–
Noteć Czarnków clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 9.7 6.9 3.2 1 8.7 12.7 8.3 3.8 2 5.6 7.5 5.1 2.4 3 2.4 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Victoria Września down, Noteć Czarnków across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Victoria Września at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Noteć Czarnków away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Victoria Września, 1.37 for Noteć Czarnków. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIC 0–0 NOT · NOT 0–1 VIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

VICTORIA WRZEŚNIA

DDDDWD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW

LDLWDL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	13	+20	33
2	Luzino	13	+20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	+2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	−2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	−7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11