Home › Football › III Liga - Group 2 › Victoria Września v Grom Nowy Staw

Victoria Września v Grom Nowy Staw

Victoria Września

1–0Full time

Grom Nowy Staw

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Victoria Września 1–0 Grom Nowy Staw GROM NOWY STAW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grom Nowy Staw win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.604

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.575

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grom Nowy Staw win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Grom Nowy Staw was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 37–22–40
2′KICK-OFF Victoria Września v Grom Nowy Staw
45′HALF-TIME Victoria Września 0–0 Grom Nowy Staw
49′SECOND HALF Victoria Września 0–0 Grom Nowy Staw
56′⚽ GOAL · 54' Victoria Września 1–0 Grom Nowy Staw
FTFULL TIME Victoria Września 1–0 Grom Nowy Staw
FTVictoria Września 1–0 Grom Nowy Staw · Grom Nowy Staw win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Victoria Września win37%

Draw23%

Grom Nowy Staw win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grom nowy staw winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Grom Nowy Staw a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · grom nowy staw win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Victoria Września win	37%	38%	−1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Grom Nowy Staw win	40%	37%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	68%	64%	+5
Both teams to score	68%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	82%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	47%	44%	+3
Victoria Września or draw	60%	63%	−4
Victoria Września clean sheet	17%	–	–
Grom Nowy Staw clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 5.0 4.7 2.9 1 4.8 9.3 7.9 4.8 2.2 2 4.4 7.7 6.8 4.1 3 2.6 4.5 4.0 2.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Victoria Września down, Grom Nowy Staw across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Victoria Września at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Grom Nowy Staw away: 2.40 scored, 2.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Victoria Września, 1.81 for Grom Nowy Staw. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

VICTORIA WRZEŚNIA

LDDDDD0–2 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

GROM NOWY STAW

WDLWWL4–2 · 4–4 · 1–5 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	11	+18	25
3	Kluczevia Stargard	10	+4	19
4	Stargard Szczeciński	11	+8	18
5	Wda Świecie	10	+1	18
6	Kalisz	11	+1	17
7	Noteć Czarnków	11	+3	16
8	Lech Poznań II	9	+2	15
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	11	0	15
10	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
11	Unia Swarzędz	11	+1	13
12	Grom Nowy Staw	11	0	13
13	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
14	Gedania Gdansk	11	−1	11
15	Kotwica Kórnik	11	−14	10
16	Chemik Bydgoszcz	10	−7	9
17	Victoria Września	11	−12	8
18	Lipno Stęszew	11	−12	5