Unia Swarzędz v Victoria Września prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Unia Swarzędz 0–0 Victoria Września UNIA SWARZĘDZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unia Swarzędz win~~53%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.893

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.902

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unia Swarzędz win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Unia Swarzędz was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
1′KICK-OFF Unia Swarzędz v Victoria Września
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Unia Swarzędz win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–38–20
45′HALF-TIME Unia Swarzędz 0–0 Victoria Września
47′SECOND HALF Unia Swarzędz 0–0 Victoria Września
49′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Unia Swarzędz win 37%)
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–45–19
59′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Unia Swarzędz win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
66′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
72′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–13
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Unia Swarzędz win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
77′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
82′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–80–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Unia Swarzędz win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
85′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
91′We said Unia Swarzędz at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Unia Swarzędz 0–0 Victoria Września
FTUnia Swarzędz 0–0 Victoria Września · Unia Swarzędz win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unia Swarzędz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unia Swarzędz 53%, draw 25%, Victoria Września 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Unia Swarzędz v Victoria WrześniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Unia Swarzędz win53%

Draw25%

Victoria Września win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unia Swarzędz

Victoria Września

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Unia Swarzędz	12	+1	14
16	Victoria Września	12	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unia swarzędz winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market53%

Us53%

~~Market~~53%

We make Unia Swarzędz a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unia Swarzędz v Victoria Września~~1.70 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~10 v 16

~~The market · Unia Swarzędz win~~53% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unia Swarzędz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unia Swarzędz win	53%	53%	0
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Victoria Września win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	38%	−9
Unia Swarzędz or draw	78%	78%	0
Unia Swarzędz clean sheet	37%	–	–
Victoria Września clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.5 6.4 3.5 1 11.0 11.7 5.7 2 9.6 9.4 4.7 3 5.4 5.3 2.7 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unia Swarzędz down, Victoria Września across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unia Swarzędz at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Victoria Września away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Unia Swarzędz, 1.00 for Victoria Września. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 VIC · VIC 3–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 4 Sept

UNIA SWARZĘDZ

DLLWWD1–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 7–0 · 1–1

VICTORIA WRZEŚNIA

DDDDDW3–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	12	+21	28
3	Wda Świecie	12	+1	21
4	Kluczevia Stargard	11	+1	19
5	Stargard Szczeciński	12	+7	18
6	Lech Poznań II	11	+1	18
7	Noteć Czarnków	12	+3	17
8	Kalisz	12	−1	17
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	12	0	16
10	Unia Swarzędz	12	+1	14
11	Gedania Gdansk	12	0	14
12	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
13	Grom Nowy Staw	12	−1	13
14	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	12	−5	12
16	Victoria Września	12	−11	11
17	Kotwica Kórnik	12	−14	11
18	Lipno Stęszew	12	−11	8