Unia Swarzędz v Stargard Szczeciński prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Unia SwarzędzDrawStargard Szczeciński

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Unia Swarzędz 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unia Swarzędz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unia Swarzędz 42%, draw 23%, Stargard Szczeciński 34%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Unia Swarzędz v Stargard SzczecińskiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Unia Swarzędz win42%

Draw23%

Stargard Szczeciński win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unia Swarzędz

Stargard Szczeciński

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Stargard Szczeciński	14	+9	22
10	Unia Swarzędz	14	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unia swarzędz winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Unia Swarzędz a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unia Swarzędz v Stargard Szczeciński~~1.79 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 22~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unia Swarzędz win	42%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Stargard Szczeciński win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Unia Swarzędz or draw	66%	–	–
Unia Swarzędz clean sheet	21%	–	–
Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.1 5.2 4.4 2.3 1 5.9 10.0 7.5 4.0 2 5.5 8.4 6.6 3.5 3 3.3 5.0 3.9 2.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unia Swarzędz down, Stargard Szczeciński across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,621 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.7% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unia Swarzędz at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stargard Szczeciński away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Unia Swarzędz, 1.59 for Stargard Szczeciński. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–0 STA · STA 1–1 UNI · UNI 2–1 STA · STA 0–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 19 Sept

UNIA SWARZĘDZ

LWWDDW1–3 · 2–0 · 7–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI

DDWLDW1–1 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	14	+20	34
2	Luzino	14	+18	28
3	Wda Świecie	14	+4	27
4	Kluczevia Stargard	13	+2	23
5	Stargard Szczeciński	14	+9	22
6	Lech Poznań II	13	+2	21
7	Noteć Czarnków	14	+1	20
8	Bałtyk Koszalin	14	+2	19
9	Elana Toruń	14	−2	19
10	Unia Swarzędz	14	+3	18
11	Gedania Gdansk	14	+1	18
12	Kalisz	14	−2	18
13	Grom Nowy Staw	14	−1	16
14	Flota Świnoujście	14	−7	15
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	14	−9	12
16	Victoria Września	14	−12	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	14	−11	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	14	−18	11