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Stargard Szczeciński v Lipno Stęszew

Stargard Szczeciński

3–4Full time

Lipno Stęszew

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Stargard Szczeciński 3–4 Lipno Stęszew STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stargard Szczeciński win~~61%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.068

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stargard Szczeciński win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stargard Szczeciński 61% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–19–19
1′KICK-OFF Stargard Szczeciński v Lipno Stęszew
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Stargard Szczeciński 1–0 Lipno Stęszew
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Stargard Szczeciński 1–1 Lipno Stęszew
21′A goal for Lipno Stęszew on 15′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 57–23–20
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Stargard Szczeciński 1–2 Lipno Stęszew
42′23′ and it is 1–2: S. Kaptur on the scoresheet for Lipno Stęszew. 1–2 · 23–27–49
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Stargard Szczeciński win: 61% at kick-off, 23% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Lipno Stęszew win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Stargard Szczeciński win 23%)
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Stargard Szczeciński 2–2 Lipno Stęszew
45′HALF-TIME Stargard Szczeciński 2–2 Lipno Stęszew
47′Stargard Szczeciński ahead on 45′ through R. Remisz. 2–2. 2–2 · 49–32–19
47′SECOND HALF Stargard Szczeciński 2–2 Lipno Stęszew
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Stargard Szczeciński win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Stargard Szczeciński win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Lipno Stęszew win 19%)
50′⚽ GOAL · 48' Stargard Szczeciński 2–3 Lipno Stęszew
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Stargard Szczeciński 2–4 Lipno Stęszew
63′58′ and it is 2–4: Lipno Stęszew have scored. 2–4 · 3–9–88
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Stargard Szczeciński win: 61% at kick-off, 3% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Lipno Stęszew win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Stargard Szczeciński win 3%)
80′⚽ GOAL · 4' Stargard Szczeciński 2–4 Lipno Stęszew · W. Fadecki
80′⚽ GOAL · 14' Stargard Szczeciński 2–4 Lipno Stęszew · W. Kryger
80′⚽ GOAL · 23' Stargard Szczeciński 2–4 Lipno Stęszew · S. Kaptur
80′⚽ GOAL · 45' Stargard Szczeciński 2–4 Lipno Stęszew · R. Remisz
80′⚽ GOAL · 48' Stargard Szczeciński 2–4 Lipno Stęszew · K. Kulczak
80′⚽ GOAL · 58' Stargard Szczeciński 2–4 Lipno Stęszew
85′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–4 · 0–1–99
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Stargard Szczeciński win: 61% at kick-off, 0% now
89′⚽ GOAL · 85' Stargard Szczeciński 3–4 Lipno Stęszew
FTFULL TIME Stargard Szczeciński 3–4 Lipno Stęszew
FTStargard Szczeciński 3–4 Lipno Stęszew · Stargard Szczeciński win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stargard Szczeciński win61%

Draw20%

Lipno Stęszew win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stargard szczeciński winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

61% The market64%

Us61%

~~Market~~64%

We make Stargard Szczeciński a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stargard szczeciński win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stargard Szczeciński win	61%	64%	−3
Draw	20%	20%	0
Lipno Stęszew win	19%	16%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	47%	+1
Stargard Szczeciński or draw	81%	84%	−3
Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet	30%	–	–
Lipno Stęszew clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.3 3.3 2.2 1 6.4 8.4 5.0 2.1 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 5.9 7.1 4.4 4 3.5 4.2 2.6 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Stargard Szczeciński down, Lipno Stęszew across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stargard Szczeciński at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lipno Stęszew away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.35 goals for Stargard Szczeciński, 1.24 for Lipno Stęszew. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LIP 1–2 STA · STA 3–1 LIP

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI

WLWDDW5–1 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 5–0

LIPNO STĘSZEW

LLLWDL1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	11	+18	25
3	Kluczevia Stargard	10	+4	19
4	Stargard Szczeciński	11	+8	18
5	Wda Świecie	10	+1	18
6	Kalisz	11	+1	17
7	Noteć Czarnków	11	+3	16
8	Lech Poznań II	9	+2	15
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	11	0	15
10	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
11	Unia Swarzędz	11	+1	13
12	Grom Nowy Staw	11	0	13
13	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
14	Gedania Gdansk	11	−1	11
15	Kotwica Kórnik	11	−14	10
16	Chemik Bydgoszcz	10	−7	9
17	Victoria Września	11	−12	8
18	Lipno Stęszew	11	−12	5