Stargard Szczeciński v Grom Nowy Staw prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Stargard Szczeciński 3–1 Grom Nowy Staw STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stargard Szczeciński win~~55%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.307

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stargard Szczeciński win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stargard Szczeciński 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–19–26
1′KICK-OFF Stargard Szczeciński v Grom Nowy Staw
14′Grom Nowy Staw find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 32–20–47
14′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–20–47
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Stargard Szczeciński 0–1 Grom Nowy Staw
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Stargard Szczeciński win: 55% at kick-off, 32% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Grom Nowy Staw win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Stargard Szczeciński win 53%)
17′A goal for Stargard Szczeciński on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 52–21–27
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Stargard Szczeciński 1–1 Grom Nowy Staw
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Stargard Szczeciński win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Stargard Szczeciński win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Grom Nowy Staw win 47%)
20′Stargard Szczeciński score on 19′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 73–15–12
20′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 2–1 · 73–15–12
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Stargard Szczeciński 2–1 Grom Nowy Staw
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Stargard Szczeciński win: 55% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Stargard Szczeciński 2–1 Grom Nowy Staw
46′SECOND HALF Stargard Szczeciński 2–1 Grom Nowy Staw
50′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–17–8
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Stargard Szczeciński win: 55% at kick-off, 75% now
55′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 2–1 · 75–18–7
68′Stargard Szczeciński find the net on 67′. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
68′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–1 · 96–4–1
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Stargard Szczeciński 3–1 Grom Nowy Staw
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Stargard Szczeciński win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
85′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Stargard Szczeciński 3–1 Grom Nowy Staw
FTStargard Szczeciński 3–1 Grom Nowy Staw · Stargard Szczeciński win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stargard Szczeciński are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stargard Szczeciński 55%, draw 19%, Grom Nowy Staw 26%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Stargard Szczeciński v Grom Nowy StawBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Stargard Szczeciński win55%

Draw19%

Grom Nowy Staw win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stargard Szczeciński

Grom Nowy Staw

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stargard szczeciński winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 01:38 · locked at kick-off

55% The market56%

Us55%

~~Market~~56%

We make Stargard Szczeciński a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stargard Szczeciński v Grom Nowy Staw~~2.60 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~5 v 10

~~The market · Stargard Szczeciński win~~56% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stargard Szczeciński win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stargard Szczeciński win	55%	56%	−1
Draw	19%	22%	−3
Grom Nowy Staw win	26%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	81%	69%	+12
Both teams to score	76%	67%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	93%	86%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	63%	50%	+13
Stargard Szczeciński or draw	74%	78%	−4
Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet	17%	–	–
Grom Nowy Staw clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 2.1 2.1 1 3.2 6.1 5.1 3.1 2 4.3 7.3 6.5 3.9 3 3.6 6.3 5.5 3.3 4 2.4 4.1 3.6 2.2 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Stargard Szczeciński down, Grom Nowy Staw across0–5 goals a side shown (93.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Stargard Szczeciński at home: 2.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Grom Nowy Staw away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.60 goals for Stargard Szczeciński, 1.79 for Grom Nowy Staw. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI

WDDWLD2–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 3–4 · 2–2

GROM NOWY STAW

LWWLLW1–5 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	13	+20	33
2	Luzino	13	+20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	+2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	−2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	−7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11