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Polonia Środa v Kluczevia Stargard

Polonia Środa
2–0Full time
Kluczevia Stargard

III Liga - Group 2 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30
Polonia Środa 2–0 Kluczevia Stargard POLONIA ŚRODA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Polonia Środa win50%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.375
The market’s Brier score0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 4 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Polonia Środa win at 50%.
  2. 28′7′ and it is 1–0: P. Mikita on the scoresheet for Polonia Środa. 1–0 · 73–17–10
  3. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Polonia Środa win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
  4. 40′We published Polonia Środa at 50%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Polonia Środa 1–0 Kluczevia Stargard
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Polonia Środa 1–0 Kluczevia Stargard
  7. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Polonia Środa 2–0 Kluczevia Stargard
  8. FTPolonia Środa 2–0 Kluczevia Stargard · Polonia Środa win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Polonia Środa win50%
Draw22%
Kluczevia Stargard win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polonia środa winPublished 9 Oct 18:04
50% The market53%
Us50%
Market53%

We make Polonia Środa a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:209 OCT 15:11
Our probability · polonia środa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Polonia Środa win50%53%−3
Draw22%23%−1
Kluczevia Stargard win28%24%+4
Over 2.5 goals68%66%+2
Both teams to score67%66%+1
Over 1.5 goals87%85%+2
Over 3.5 goals47%47%+1
Polonia Środa or draw72%76%−4
Polonia Środa clean sheet23%––
Kluczevia Stargard clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%
0123450 3.5 4.1 3.3 1 5.6 9.1 6.5 3.3 2 6.0 8.7 6.5 3.3 3 4.1 6.0 4.4 2.2 4 2.2 3.1 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Polonia Środa down, Kluczevia Stargard across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsKLU 1–2 POL · POL 1–4 KLU · POL 0–2 KLU · KLU 0–2 POL

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

POLONIA ŚRODA

WDWDDW4–3 · 4–4 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0

KLUCZEVIA STARGARD

WWLWWL4–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa11+1727
2Luzino11+1825
3Kluczevia Stargard9+619
4Stargard Szczeciński11+818
5Wda Świecie10+118
6Kalisz11+117
7Noteć Czarnków11+316
8Lech Poznań II9+215
9Bałtyk Koszalin11015
10Flota Świnoujście11−514
11Unia Swarzędz11+113
12Grom Nowy Staw11013
13Gedania Gdansk11−111
14Elana Toruń11−610
15Kotwica Kórnik11−1410
16Chemik Bydgoszcz10−79
17Victoria Września11−128
18Lipno Stęszew11−125

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.