Noteć Czarnków v Bałtyk Koszalin prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Noteć Czarnków 0–3 Bałtyk Koszalin NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Noteć Czarnków win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Noteć Czarnków are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Noteć Czarnków 46%, draw 26%, Bałtyk Koszalin 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Noteć Czarnków v Bałtyk KoszalinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Noteć Czarnków win46%

Draw26%

Bałtyk Koszalin win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Noteć Czarnków

Bałtyk Koszalin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Noteć Czarnków	12	+3	17
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	12	0	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · noteć czarnków winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Noteć Czarnków a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Noteć Czarnków v Bałtyk Koszalin~~1.56 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 16~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Noteć Czarnków win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Bałtyk Koszalin win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Noteć Czarnków or draw	72%	–	–
Noteć Czarnków clean sheet	32%	–	–
Bałtyk Koszalin clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.7 7.3 4.5 1 10.0 12.0 6.7 2.6 2 8.0 8.9 5.1 2.0 3 4.2 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Noteć Czarnków down, Bałtyk Koszalin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Noteć Czarnków at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bałtyk Koszalin away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Noteć Czarnków, 1.15 for Bałtyk Koszalin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW

WLDLWD3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

BAŁTYK KOSZALIN

DLLWWD2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	12	+21	28
3	Wda Świecie	12	+1	21
4	Kluczevia Stargard	11	+1	19
5	Stargard Szczeciński	12	+7	18
6	Lech Poznań II	11	+1	18
7	Noteć Czarnków	12	+3	17
8	Kalisz	12	−1	17
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	12	0	16
10	Unia Swarzędz	12	+1	14
11	Gedania Gdansk	12	0	14
12	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
13	Grom Nowy Staw	12	−1	13
14	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	12	−5	12
16	Victoria Września	12	−11	11
17	Kotwica Kórnik	12	−14	11
18	Lipno Stęszew	12	−11	8