Lipno Stęszew v Kalisz prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Lipno Stęszew 1–0 Kalisz LIPNO STĘSZEW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lipno Stęszew win~~40%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.652

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lipno Stęszew just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lipno Stęszew 40%, draw 24%, Kalisz 36%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Lipno Stęszew v KaliszBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lipno Stęszew win40%

Draw24%

Kalisz win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lipno Stęszew

Kalisz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kalisz	12	−1	17
18	Lipno Stęszew	12	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lipno stęszew winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market34%

Us40%

~~Market~~34%

We make Lipno Stęszew a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lipno Stęszew v Kalisz~~1.62 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 17~~18 v 8

~~The market · Lipno Stęszew win~~34% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lipno Stęszew win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lipno Stęszew win	40%	34%	+6
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Kalisz win	36%	39%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Lipno Stęszew or draw	64%	61%	+3
Lipno Stęszew clean sheet	22%	–	–
Kalisz clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.0 6.3 5.1 2.6 1 6.7 10.9 7.9 4.0 2 5.7 8.4 6.3 3.2 3 3.1 4.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lipno Stęszew down, Kalisz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Lipno Stęszew at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kalisz away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Lipno Stęszew, 1.52 for Kalisz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

LIPNO STĘSZEW

LLWDLW1–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–3

KALISZ

DDDWLL3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	12	+21	28
3	Wda Świecie	12	+1	21
4	Kluczevia Stargard	11	+1	19
5	Stargard Szczeciński	12	+7	18
6	Lech Poznań II	11	+1	18
7	Noteć Czarnków	12	+3	17
8	Kalisz	12	−1	17
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	12	0	16
10	Unia Swarzędz	12	+1	14
11	Gedania Gdansk	12	0	14
12	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
13	Grom Nowy Staw	12	−1	13
14	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	12	−5	12
16	Victoria Września	12	−11	11
17	Kotwica Kórnik	12	−14	11
18	Lipno Stęszew	12	−11	8