Lipno Stęszew v Gedania Gdansk prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Lipno Stęszew 1–2 Gedania Gdansk LIPNO STĘSZEW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lipno Stęszew win~~42%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.642

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.668

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lipno Stęszew win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lipno Stęszew 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
1′KICK-OFF Lipno Stęszew v Gedania Gdansk
22′A goal for Lipno Stęszew on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–19–16
22′We said Lipno Stęszew at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–16
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Lipno Stęszew 1–0 Gedania Gdansk
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Lipno Stęszew win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 66–19–14
38′Gedania Gdansk score on 38′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–30–33
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Lipno Stęszew 1–1 Gedania Gdansk
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Lipno Stęszew win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Lipno Stęszew 1–1 Gedania Gdansk
46′SECOND HALF Lipno Stęszew 1–1 Gedania Gdansk
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lipno Stęszew win 35%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Lipno Stęszew win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
62′We said Lipno Stęszew at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–43–27
65′We said Lipno Stęszew at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–25
72′We said Lipno Stęszew at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Lipno Stęszew win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
77′We said Lipno Stęszew at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–17
83′We said Lipno Stęszew at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–77–11
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Lipno Stęszew win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
87′Gedania Gdansk find the net on 86′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–92
87′We said Lipno Stęszew at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Lipno Stęszew 1–2 Gedania Gdansk
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Lipno Stęszew win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Gedania Gdansk win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 81%)
FTFULL TIME Lipno Stęszew 1–2 Gedania Gdansk
FTLipno Stęszew 1–2 Gedania Gdansk · Lipno Stęszew win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lipno Stęszew are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lipno Stęszew 42%, draw 22%, Gedania Gdansk 36%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Lipno Stęszew v Gedania GdanskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lipno Stęszew win42%

Draw22%

Gedania Gdansk win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lipno Stęszew

Gedania Gdansk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lipno stęszew winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Lipno Stęszew a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lipno Stęszew v Gedania Gdansk~~1.92 – 1.75

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~17 v 13

~~The market · Lipno Stęszew win~~42% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lipno Stęszew win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lipno Stęszew win	42%	42%	0
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Gedania Gdansk win	36%	34%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	66%	+4
Both teams to score	70%	67%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	81%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Lipno Stęszew or draw	64%	66%	−2
Lipno Stęszew clean sheet	18%	–	–
Gedania Gdansk clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.1 4.3 4.0 2.3 1 4.8 8.8 7.3 4.2 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 4.0 3 3.1 5.1 4.4 2.6 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lipno Stęszew down, Gedania Gdansk across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Lipno Stęszew at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gedania Gdansk away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Lipno Stęszew, 1.75 for Gedania Gdansk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

LIPNO STĘSZEW

LWDLWW1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 1–0

GEDANIA GDANSK

DWLDWD1–1 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	13	+20	33
2	Luzino	13	+20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	+2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	−2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	−7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11