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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 2 › Lech Poznań II v Wda Świecie

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Lech Poznań II v Wda Świecie

Lech Poznań II
1–4Full time
Wda Świecie

III Liga - Group 2 · WED 14 OCT · Amica Wronki Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53
Lech Poznań II 1–4 Wda Świecie LECH POZNAŃ II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lech Poznań II win54%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.918
The market’s Brier score0.930

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lech Poznań II win at 54%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF Lech Poznań II v Wda Świecie
  3. 3′Much as we predicted: Lech Poznań II was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–24
  4. 5′Wda Świecie find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 32–22–46
  5. 5′We said Lech Poznań II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–22–46
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Lech Poznań II 0–1 Wda Świecie
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Lech Poznań II win: 54% at kick-off, 32% now
  8. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Wda Świecie win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Lech Poznań II win 32%)
  9. 7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Wda Świecie
  10. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Lech Poznań II win: 54% at kick-off, 54% now
  11. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Lech Poznań II win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Wda Świecie win 24%)
  12. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Lech Poznań II 0–1 Wda Świecie
  13. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Lech Poznań II win: 54% at kick-off, 31% now
  14. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Wda Świecie win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Lech Poznań II win 31%)
  15. 13′A goal for Wda Świecie on 12′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 14–16–70
  16. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Lech Poznań II 0–2 Wda Świecie
  17. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Lech Poznań II win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  18. 14′We said Lech Poznań II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–2 · 13–16–71
  19. 29′We said Lech Poznań II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–15–76
  20. 42′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–2 · 6–13–81
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Lech Poznań II 0–2 Wda Świecie
  22. 46′A red card for Lech Poznań II on 19′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 5–12–82
  23. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 19' M. Cegielka · Lech Poznań II
  24. 46′🟥 RED CARD · 19' M. Cegielka · Lech Poznań II
  25. 46′SECOND HALF Lech Poznań II 0–2 Wda Świecie
  26. 51′We said Lech Poznań II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
  27. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lech Poznań II win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  28. 52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lech Poznań II 0–3 Wda Świecie
  29. 53′51′ and it is 0–3: Wda Świecie have scored. 0–3 · 1–3–96
  30. 56′52′ and it is 0–3: K. De Souza on the scoresheet for Wda Świecie. 0–3 · 1–3–97
  31. 58′Lech Poznań II find the net on 58′. 1–3. 1–3 · 3–9–88
  32. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lech Poznań II 1–3 Wda Świecie
  33. 59′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 3–9–88
  34. 79′A goal for Wda Świecie on 79′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  35. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Lech Poznań II 1–4 Wda Świecie
  36. 80′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  37. FTFULL TIME Lech Poznań II 1–4 Wda Świecie
  38. FTLech Poznań II 1–4 Wda Świecie · Lech Poznań II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Lech Poznań II v Wda ŚwiecieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:39 · locked at kick-off

Lech Poznań II win54%
Draw21%
Wda Świecie win24%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueAmica Wronki Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lech Poznań II

Wda Świecie

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Lech Poznań II10418
6Wda Świecie11-218

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lech poznań ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:39 · locked at kick-off
54% The market54%
Us54%
Market54%

We make Lech Poznań II a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lech Poznań II v Wda Świecie2.13 – 1.36
Last six in III Liga - Group 2W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 18 v 185 v 6
The market · Lech Poznań II win54% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:2014 OCT 04:47
Our probability · lech poznań ii win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lech Poznań II win54%54%+1
Draw21%23%−2
Wda Świecie win24%23%+1
Over 2.5 goals67%64%+3
Both teams to score65%63%+2
Over 1.5 goals86%83%+3
Over 3.5 goals46%43%+2
Lech Poznań II or draw76%77%−1
Lech Poznań II clean sheet26%––
Wda Świecie clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.7 4.0 2.9 1 6.4 9.2 5.9 2.7 2 7.0 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 4.9 6.4 4.3 4 2.6 3.5 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lech Poznań II down, Wda Świecie across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsWDA 2–3 LEC · LEC 6–0 WDA · WDA 1–1 LEC · LEC 1–0 WDA

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

LECH POZNAŃ II

WLDWDW3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–2

WDA ŚWIECIE

WWDLLL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa121930
2Luzino122128
3Kluczevia Stargard11119
4Stargard Szczeciński12718
5Lech Poznań II10418
6Wda Świecie11-218
7Noteć Czarnków12317
8Kalisz12-117
9Bałtyk Koszalin12016
10Unia Swarzędz12114
11Gedania Gdansk12014
12Flota Świnoujście12-614
13Grom Nowy Staw12-113
14Elana Toruń12-513
15Chemik Bydgoszcz12-512
16Victoria Września12-1111
17Kotwica Kórnik12-1411
18Lipno Stęszew12-118

The competition's standings.