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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 2 › Lech Poznań II v Polonia Środa

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Lech Poznań II v Polonia Środa

Lech Poznań II
2–3Full time
Polonia Środa

III Liga - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Amica Wronki Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36
Lech Poznań II 2–3 Polonia Środa POLONIA ŚRODA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Polonia Środa win47%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.432
The market’s Brier score0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Polonia Środa win at 47%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Polonia Środa 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 33–21–47
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Lech Poznań II v Polonia Środa
  4. 11′Lech Poznań II find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–20–26
  5. 11′We said Polonia Środa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 54–20–26
  6. 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Lech Poznań II 1–0 Polonia Środa
  7. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 26% now
  8. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Lech Poznań II win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Polonia Środa win 26%)
  9. 18′We said Polonia Środa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 55–20–24
  10. 28′A goal for Polonia Środa on 28′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–25–43
  11. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Lech Poznań II 1–1 Polonia Środa
  12. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 43% now
  13. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Polonia Środa win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Lech Poznań II win 32%)
  14. 35′Lech Poznań II are down to ten from 34′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 31–27–42
  15. 35′🟥 RED CARD · 34' Lech Poznań II
  16. 36′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 31–27–42
  17. 45′Polonia Środa score on 45′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 11–19–70
  18. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Lech Poznań II 1–2 Polonia Środa
  19. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 70% now
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Lech Poznań II 1–2 Polonia Środa
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Lech Poznań II 1–2 Polonia Środa
  22. 47′We said Polonia Środa at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 10–19–70
  23. 50′Polonia Środa find the net on 49′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  24. 50′We said Polonia Środa at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  25. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Lech Poznań II 1–3 Polonia Środa
  26. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 91% now
  27. 67′We said Polonia Środa at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  28. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  29. 75′A goal for Lech Poznań II on 73′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 3–16–81
  30. 75′We said Polonia Środa at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–3 · 3–16–81
  31. 75′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 3–16–81
  32. 75′⚽ GOAL · 73' Lech Poznań II 2–3 Polonia Środa
  33. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 81% now
  34. 80′We said Polonia Środa at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 1–13–85
  35. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 89% now
  36. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Polonia Środa win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  37. FTFULL TIME Lech Poznań II 2–3 Polonia Środa
  38. FTLech Poznań II 2–3 Polonia Środa · Polonia Środa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polonia Środa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lech Poznań II 33%, draw 21%, Polonia Środa 47%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Lech Poznań II v Polonia ŚrodaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lech Poznań II win33%
Draw21%
Polonia Środa win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

VenueAmica Wronki Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lech Poznań II

Polonia Środa

4Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa12+1930
7Lech Poznań II11+118

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polonia środa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market43%
Us47%
Market43%

We make Polonia Środa a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lech Poznań II v Polonia Środa1.82 – 2.21
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 29 AugW2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 18 v 307 v 1
The market · Polonia Środa win43% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 10:42
Our probability · Polonia Środa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lech Poznań II win33%33%0
Draw21%24%−3
Polonia Środa win47%43%+4
Over 2.5 goals76%66%+10
Both teams to score74%67%+7
Over 1.5 goals91%82%+9
Over 3.5 goals57%46%+11
Lech Poznań II or draw53%57%−4
Lech Poznań II clean sheet12%––
Polonia Środa clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.6%
0123450 2.3 3.8 4.3 3.2 1 3.2 7.5 7.6 5.5 3.1 2 3.1 6.5 6.8 4.9 2.8 3 3.9 4.2 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lech Poznań II down, Polonia Środa across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsLEC 1–1 POL · POL 1–4 LEC · LEC 1–1 POL · POL 1–3 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 29 Aug

LECH POZNAŃ II

LDWDWL2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–4

POLONIA ŚRODA

DWDDWW4–4 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa12+1930
2Luzino13+2028
3Kluczevia Stargard12+222
4Wda Świecie12+121
5Stargard Szczeciński13+719
6Bałtyk Koszalin13+319
7Lech Poznań II11+118
8Noteć Czarnków13017
9Kalisz13−217
10Grom Nowy Staw13+116
11Elana Toruń13−316
12Unia Swarzędz13+115
13Gedania Gdansk13015
14Flota Świnoujście12−614
15Chemik Bydgoszcz13−712
16Victoria Września13−1112
17Lipno Stęszew13−1011
18Kotwica Kórnik13−1611

The competition's standings before kick-off.