Kotwica Kórnik v Wda Świecie prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Kotwica Kórnik 0–2 Wda Świecie WDA ŚWIECIE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wda Świecie win~~45%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.405

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wda Świecie win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wda Świecie was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 33–22–45
1′KICK-OFF Kotwica Kórnik v Wda Świecie
37′Wda Świecie find the net on 37′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Kotwica Kórnik 0–1 Wda Świecie
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Wda Świecie win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
38′We published Wda Świecie at 45%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
45′HALF-TIME Kotwica Kórnik 0–1 Wda Świecie
46′SECOND HALF Kotwica Kórnik 0–1 Wda Świecie
57′A goal for Wda Świecie on 56′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
57′We published Wda Świecie at 45%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Kotwica Kórnik 0–2 Wda Świecie
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Wda Świecie win: 45% at kick-off, 93% now
58′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–93
63′We published Wda Świecie at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Wda Świecie win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
84′We published Wda Świecie at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kotwica Kórnik 0–2 Wda Świecie
FTKotwica Kórnik 0–2 Wda Świecie · Wda Świecie win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wda Świecie are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kotwica Kórnik 33%, draw 22%, Wda Świecie 45%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Kotwica Kórnik v Wda ŚwiecieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kotwica Kórnik win33%

Draw22%

Wda Świecie win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kotwica Kórnik

Wda Świecie

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wda świecie winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make Wda Świecie a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kotwica Kórnik v Wda Świecie~~1.61 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 24~~18 v 3

~~The market · Wda Świecie win~~48% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wda Świecie win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kotwica Kórnik win	33%	28%	+5
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Wda Świecie win	45%	48%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	47%	43%	+4
Kotwica Kórnik or draw	55%	52%	+3
Kotwica Kórnik clean sheet	15%	–	–
Wda Świecie clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 5.4 5.4 3.5 1 4.6 9.3 8.4 5.3 2.6 2 3.9 7.1 6.6 4.2 2.1 3 2.1 3.8 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kotwica Kórnik down, Wda Świecie across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kotwica Kórnik at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wda Świecie away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Kotwica Kórnik, 1.93 for Wda Świecie. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KOT 2–0 WDA · WDA 2–1 KOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

KOTWICA KÓRNIK

WLLLDL4–1 · 1–6 · 1–3 · 0–7 · 1–1 · 1–3

WDA ŚWIECIE

DLLLWW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	13	+20	33
2	Luzino	13	+20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	+2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	−2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	−7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11