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Kotwica Kórnik v Noteć Czarnków

Kotwica Kórnik

1–1Full time

Noteć Czarnków

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Kotwica Kórnik 1–1 Noteć Czarnków NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Noteć Czarnków win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.972

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kotwica Kórnik win26%

Draw21%

Noteć Czarnków win53%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · noteć czarnków winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Noteć Czarnków a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kotwica Kórnik win	26%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Noteć Czarnków win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Kotwica Kórnik or draw	47%	–	–
Kotwica Kórnik clean sheet	12%	–	–
Noteć Czarnków clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.6%

0123450 3.2 5.4 6.0 4.4 2.5 1 3.7 8.6 8.6 6.2 3.5 2 3.0 6.1 6.4 4.5 2.5 3 3.1 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kotwica Kórnik down, Noteć Czarnków across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kotwica Kórnik at home: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Noteć Czarnków away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Kotwica Kórnik, 2.18 for Noteć Czarnków. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NOT 0–1 KOT · KOT 6–1 NOT

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

KOTWICA KÓRNIK

WWWLLL4–1 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 1–6 · 1–3 · 0–7

NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW

LWLDLW1–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	11	+18	25
3	Kluczevia Stargard	10	+4	19
4	Stargard Szczeciński	11	+8	18
5	Wda Świecie	10	+1	18
6	Kalisz	11	+1	17
7	Noteć Czarnków	11	+3	16
8	Lech Poznań II	9	+2	15
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	11	0	15
10	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
11	Unia Swarzędz	11	+1	13
12	Grom Nowy Staw	11	0	13
13	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
14	Gedania Gdansk	11	−1	11
15	Kotwica Kórnik	11	−14	10
16	Chemik Bydgoszcz	10	−7	9
17	Victoria Września	11	−12	8
18	Lipno Stęszew	11	−12	5