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Kluczevia Stargard v Luzino
Kluczevia Stargard
LuzinoIII Liga - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Luzino win at 48%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Luzino was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 29–23–48
- 2′KICK-OFF Kluczevia Stargard v Luzino
- 15′Kluczevia Stargard score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 54–22–24
- 15′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 54–22–24
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Kluczevia Stargard 1–0 Luzino
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
- 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Kluczevia Stargard win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Luzino win 24%)
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 57–23–20
- 31′Luzino find the net on 30′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–29–43
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Kluczevia Stargard 1–1 Luzino
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
- 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Luzino win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Kluczevia Stargard win 28%)
- 42′A goal for Kluczevia Stargard on 41′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 60–24–16
- 42′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–1 · 60–24–16
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Luzino
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 16% now
- 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Kluczevia Stargard win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Luzino win 16%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Luzino
- 46′SECOND HALF Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Luzino
- 47′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 61–24–14
- 52′Kluczevia Stargard score on 51′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 88–9–3
- 52′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–1 · 88–9–3
- 52′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 88–9–3
- 52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Kluczevia Stargard 3–1 Luzino
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
- 84′Luzino find the net on 84′. 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
- 84′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 89–10–1
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Kluczevia Stargard 3–2 Luzino
- 91′A red card for Luzino on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–2 · 95–5–0
- 91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Luzino
- FTFULL TIME Kluczevia Stargard 3–2 Luzino
- FTKluczevia Stargard 3–2 Luzino · Luzino win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassLuzino are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kluczevia Stargard 29%, draw 23%, Luzino 48%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Kluczevia Stargard win29%
Luzino win48%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00
RoundGroup II · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Kluczevia StargardMIN
LuzinoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kluczevia Stargard
Luzino
Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 2
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Luzino a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kluczevia Stargard win | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Luzino win | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Kluczevia Stargard or draw | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Kluczevia Stargard clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
| Luzino clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 28 Aug
KLUCZEVIA STARGARD
LUZINO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 12 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 | Luzino | 12 | +21 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 12 | +1 | 21 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 12 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | Kalisz | 12 | −1 | 17 |
| 9 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 12 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Gedania Gdansk | 12 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Flota Świnoujście | 12 | −6 | 14 |
| 13 | Grom Nowy Staw | 12 | −1 | 13 |
| 14 | Elana Toruń | 12 | −5 | 13 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 12 | −5 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 12 | −11 | 11 |
| 17 | Kotwica Kórnik | 12 | −14 | 11 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 12 | −11 | 8 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Polonia Środa
Wda Świecie
Stargard Szczeciński
Lech Poznań II
Noteć Czarnków
Kalisz
Bałtyk Koszalin
Unia Swarzędz
Gedania Gdansk
Flota Świnoujście
Grom Nowy Staw
Elana Toruń
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Victoria Września
Kotwica Kórnik
Lipno Stęszew