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Kluczevia Stargard v Luzino

Kluczevia Stargard
3–2Full time
Luzino

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Kluczevia Stargard 3–2 Luzino LUZINO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Luzino win48%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.786
The market’s Brier score0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Luzino win at 48%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Luzino was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 29–23–48
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Kluczevia Stargard v Luzino
  4. 15′Kluczevia Stargard score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 54–22–24
  5. 15′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 54–22–24
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Kluczevia Stargard 1–0 Luzino
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
  8. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Kluczevia Stargard win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Luzino win 24%)
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 57–23–20
  10. 31′Luzino find the net on 30′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–29–43
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Kluczevia Stargard 1–1 Luzino
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
  13. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Luzino win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Kluczevia Stargard win 28%)
  14. 42′A goal for Kluczevia Stargard on 41′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 60–24–16
  15. 42′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–1 · 60–24–16
  16. 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Luzino
  17. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 16% now
  18. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Kluczevia Stargard win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Luzino win 16%)
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Luzino
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Luzino
  21. 47′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 61–24–14
  22. 52′Kluczevia Stargard score on 51′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 88–9–3
  23. 52′We said Luzino at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–1 · 88–9–3
  24. 52′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 88–9–3
  25. 52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Kluczevia Stargard 3–1 Luzino
  26. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Luzino win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
  27. 84′Luzino find the net on 84′. 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  28. 84′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  29. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Kluczevia Stargard 3–2 Luzino
  30. 91′A red card for Luzino on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  31. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Luzino
  32. FTFULL TIME Kluczevia Stargard 3–2 Luzino
  33. FTKluczevia Stargard 3–2 Luzino · Luzino win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Luzino are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kluczevia Stargard 29%, draw 23%, Luzino 48%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Kluczevia Stargard v LuzinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kluczevia Stargard win29%
Draw23%
Luzino win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kluczevia Stargard

Luzino

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Luzino12+2128
4Kluczevia Stargard11+119

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luzino winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market48%
Us48%
Market48%

We make Luzino a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kluczevia Stargard v Luzino1.43 – 1.90
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 28 AugW3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 19 v 284 v 2
The market · Luzino win48% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 11:45
Our probability · Luzino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kluczevia Stargard win29%28%+1
Draw23%24%−1
Luzino win48%48%0
Over 2.5 goals64%65%−1
Both teams to score64%66%−2
Over 1.5 goals84%82%+2
Over 3.5 goals43%45%−2
Kluczevia Stargard or draw52%52%0
Kluczevia Stargard clean sheet16%––
Luzino clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.2 6.5 6.4 4.1 2.0 1 4.9 10.0 8.9 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 6.8 6.3 4.0 3 3.3 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kluczevia Stargard down, Luzino across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsLUZ 3–2 KLU · KLU 1–2 LUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 28 Aug

KLUCZEVIA STARGARD

WLWWLL2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

LUZINO

WWWWLW4–0 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa12+1930
2Luzino12+2128
3Wda Świecie12+121
4Kluczevia Stargard11+119
5Stargard Szczeciński12+718
6Lech Poznań II11+118
7Noteć Czarnków12+317
8Kalisz12−117
9Bałtyk Koszalin12016
10Unia Swarzędz12+114
11Gedania Gdansk12014
12Flota Świnoujście12−614
13Grom Nowy Staw12−113
14Elana Toruń12−513
15Chemik Bydgoszcz12−512
16Victoria Września12−1111
17Kotwica Kórnik12−1411
18Lipno Stęszew12−118

The competition's standings before kick-off.