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Model 1.2

Home › Football › III Liga - Group 2 › Kluczevia Stargard v Flota Świnoujście

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Kluczevia Stargard v Flota Świnoujście

Kluczevia Stargard
2–2Full time
Flota Świnoujście

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Kluczevia Stargard 2–2 Flota Świnoujście KLUCZEVIA STARGARD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kluczevia Stargard win58%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.980
The market’s Brier score0.973

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kluczevia Stargard win at 58%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Kluczevia Stargard 58% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–20
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Kluczevia Stargard v Flota Świnoujście
  4. 24′Kluczevia Stargard find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–6
  5. 24′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–6
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Kluczevia Stargard 1–0 Flota Świnoujście
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Kluczevia Stargard win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
  8. 25′A goal for Kluczevia Stargard on 25′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  9. 25′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  10. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Kluczevia Stargard 2–0 Flota Świnoujście
  11. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Kluczevia Stargard win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
  12. 37′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Kluczevia Stargard 2–0 Flota Świnoujście
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Kluczevia Stargard 2–0 Flota Świnoujście
  15. 47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Kluczevia Stargard win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
  17. 73′Flota Świnoujście score on 73′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  18. 73′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  19. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Flota Świnoujście
  20. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Kluczevia Stargard win: 58% at kick-off, 87% now
  21. 82′Flota Świnoujście find the net on 82′. 2–2. 2–2 · 15–77–8
  22. 82′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 2–2 · 15–77–8
  23. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Kluczevia Stargard 2–2 Flota Świnoujście
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Kluczevia Stargard win: 58% at kick-off, 15% now
  25. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Kluczevia Stargard win 91%)
  26. 83′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–80–7
  27. 83′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 13–80–7
  28. 87′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–86–5
  29. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Kluczevia Stargard win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  30. 92′We said Kluczevia Stargard at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–2
  31. FTFULL TIME Kluczevia Stargard 2–2 Flota Świnoujście
  32. FTKluczevia Stargard 2–2 Flota Świnoujście · Kluczevia Stargard win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kluczevia Stargard are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kluczevia Stargard 58%, draw 22%, Flota Świnoujście 20%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Kluczevia Stargard v Flota ŚwinoujścieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kluczevia Stargard win58%
Draw22%
Flota Świnoujście win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kluczevia Stargard

Flota Świnoujście

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Kluczevia Stargard12+222
14Flota Świnoujście13−714

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kluczevia stargard winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
58% The market58%
Us58%
Market58%

We make Kluczevia Stargard a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kluczevia Stargard v Flota Świnoujście2.00 – 1.09
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 SeptW3 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 22 v 144 v 14
The market · Kluczevia Stargard win58% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:21
Our probability · Kluczevia Stargard win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kluczevia Stargard win58%58%0
Draw22%23%−1
Flota Świnoujście win20%19%+1
Over 2.5 goals59%59%0
Both teams to score57%58%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%80%+1
Over 3.5 goals37%38%−1
Kluczevia Stargard or draw80%81%−1
Kluczevia Stargard clean sheet34%––
Flota Świnoujście clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%
0123450 5.3 4.8 2.8 1 8.9 10.2 5.3 2 9.0 9.5 5.2 3 6.0 6.3 3.4 4 3.1 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kluczevia Stargard down, Flota Świnoujście across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsKLU 2–3 FLO · FLO 2–1 KLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

KLUCZEVIA STARGARD

LWWLLW1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–2

FLOTA ŚWINOUJŚCIE

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa13+2033
2Luzino13+2028
3Wda Świecie13+224
4Kluczevia Stargard12+222
5Stargard Szczeciński13+719
6Bałtyk Koszalin13+319
7Lech Poznań II12018
8Noteć Czarnków13017
9Kalisz13−217
10Grom Nowy Staw13+116
11Elana Toruń13−316
12Unia Swarzędz13+115
13Gedania Gdansk13015
14Flota Świnoujście13−714
15Chemik Bydgoszcz13−712
16Victoria Września13−1112
17Lipno Stęszew13−1011
18Kotwica Kórnik13−1611

The competition's standings before kick-off.