Kalisz v Polonia Środa prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Kalisz 0–0 Polonia Środa POLONIA ŚRODA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Polonia Środa win~~54%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.975

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.959

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polonia Środa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kalisz 25%, draw 21%, Polonia Środa 54%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Kalisz v Polonia ŚrodaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kalisz win25%

Draw21%

Polonia Środa win54%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

VenueStadion Miejski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kalisz

Polonia Środa

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polonia środa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 10:16 · locked at kick-off

54% The market56%

Us54%

~~Market~~56%

We make Polonia Środa a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kalisz v Polonia Środa~~1.41 – 2.16

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 33~~9 v 1

~~The market · Polonia Środa win~~56% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Polonia Środa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalisz win	25%	22%	+3
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Polonia Środa win	54%	56%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Both teams to score	66%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	47%	42%	+5
Kalisz or draw	46%	44%	+2
Kalisz clean sheet	12%	–	–
Polonia Środa clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.4 5.9 6.5 4.7 2.6 1 3.9 8.9 8.9 6.3 3.5 2 3.0 6.0 6.2 4.4 2.4 3 2.9 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalisz down, Polonia Środa across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Kalisz at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Środa away: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Kalisz, 2.16 for Polonia Środa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept

KALISZ

DDWLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–4 · 0–1

POLONIA ŚRODA

WDDWWW4–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	13	+20	33
2	Luzino	13	+20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	+2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	−2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	−7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11