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Kalisz v Lech Poznań II

Kalisz
2–4Full time
Lech Poznań II

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Miejski

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02
Kalisz 2–4 Lech Poznań II LECH POZNAŃ II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lech Poznań II win40%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.555
The market’s Brier score0.667

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lech Poznań II win at 40%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Lech Poznań II 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 37–23–40
  3. 8′5′ and it is 0–1: Lech Poznań II have scored. 0–1 · 17–19–64
  4. 23′Lech Poznań II find the net on 20′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–10–85
  5. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 85% now
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
  7. 31′Lech Poznań II find the net on 20′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
  8. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 85% now
  10. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Kalisz 0–3 Lech Poznań II
  11. 45′M. Dziuba scores for Lech Poznań II on 35′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Kalisz 0–3 Lech Poznań II
  13. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
  15. 47′SECOND HALF Kalisz 0–3 Lech Poznań II
  16. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Kalisz 0–4 Lech Poznań II
  17. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  18. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  19. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  20. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  21. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Lech Poznań II win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  22. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Kalisz 1–4 Lech Poznań II
  23. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kalisz 2–4 Lech Poznań II
  24. FTFULL TIME Kalisz 2–4 Lech Poznań II
  25. FTKalisz 2–4 Lech Poznań II · Lech Poznań II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kalisz win37%
Draw24%
Lech Poznań II win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stadion Miejski

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lech poznań ii winPublished 10 Oct 17:01
40% The market34%
Us40%
Market34%

We make Lech Poznań II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:2010 OCT 14:23
Our probability · lech poznań ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kalisz win37%40%−3
Draw24%26%−3
Lech Poznań II win40%34%+6
Over 2.5 goals64%58%+6
Both teams to score65%62%+3
Over 1.5 goals84%79%+6
Over 3.5 goals42%38%+4
Kalisz or draw60%66%−6
Kalisz clean sheet19%––
Lech Poznań II clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 4.3 5.9 5.3 3.0 1 5.7 10.3 8.2 4.6 2.0 2 4.9 7.9 6.5 3.7 3 2.6 4.3 3.5 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kalisz down, Lech Poznań II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

KALISZ

WDDDWL5–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–5

LECH POZNAŃ II

WWLDWD1–0 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa12+1930
2Luzino11+1825
3Kluczevia Stargard10+419
4Stargard Szczeciński11+818
5Wda Świecie10+118
6Kalisz11+117
7Noteć Czarnków11+316
8Lech Poznań II9+215
9Bałtyk Koszalin11015
10Flota Świnoujście12−614
11Unia Swarzędz11+113
12Grom Nowy Staw11013
13Elana Toruń12−513
14Gedania Gdansk11−111
15Kotwica Kórnik11−1410
16Chemik Bydgoszcz10−79
17Victoria Września11−128
18Lipno Stęszew11−125

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.