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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 2 › Grom Nowy Staw v Chemik Bydgoszcz

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Grom Nowy Staw v Chemik Bydgoszcz

Grom Nowy Staw
2–0Full time
Chemik Bydgoszcz

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56
Grom Nowy Staw 2–0 Chemik Bydgoszcz GROM NOWY STAW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Grom Nowy Staw win52%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.346
The market’s Brier score0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Grom Nowy Staw win at 52%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Grom Nowy Staw 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–20–28
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Grom Nowy Staw v Chemik Bydgoszcz
  4. 22′A goal for Chemik Bydgoszcz on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 27–22–51
  5. 22′We said Grom Nowy Staw at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–22–51
  6. 22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Grom Nowy Staw 0–1 Chemik Bydgoszcz
  7. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Grom Nowy Staw win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
  8. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Chemik Bydgoszcz win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Grom Nowy Staw win 27%)
  9. 23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Chemik Bydgoszcz
  10. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Grom Nowy Staw win: 52% at kick-off, 49% now
  11. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Grom Nowy Staw win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Chemik Bydgoszcz win 28%)
  12. 32′A goal for Grom Nowy Staw on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–11
  13. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Grom Nowy Staw 1–0 Chemik Bydgoszcz
  14. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Grom Nowy Staw win: 52% at kick-off, 73% now
  15. 33′We said Grom Nowy Staw at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–11
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Grom Nowy Staw 1–0 Chemik Bydgoszcz
  17. 47′SECOND HALF Grom Nowy Staw 1–0 Chemik Bydgoszcz
  18. 53′We said Grom Nowy Staw at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  19. 70′We said Grom Nowy Staw at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  20. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Grom Nowy Staw win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  21. 78′We said Grom Nowy Staw at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  22. 83′We said Grom Nowy Staw at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  23. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Grom Nowy Staw win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  24. 90′Grom Nowy Staw score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  25. 90′We said Grom Nowy Staw at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Grom Nowy Staw 2–0 Chemik Bydgoszcz
  27. FTFULL TIME Grom Nowy Staw 2–0 Chemik Bydgoszcz
  28. FTGrom Nowy Staw 2–0 Chemik Bydgoszcz · Grom Nowy Staw win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grom Nowy Staw are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grom Nowy Staw 52%, draw 20%, Chemik Bydgoszcz 28%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Grom Nowy Staw v Chemik BydgoszczBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Grom Nowy Staw win52%
Draw20%
Chemik Bydgoszcz win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grom Nowy Staw

Chemik Bydgoszcz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Grom Nowy Staw12−113
15Chemik Bydgoszcz12−512

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grom nowy staw winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
52% The market44%
Us52%
Market44%

We make Grom Nowy Staw a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Grom Nowy Staw v Chemik Bydgoszcz2.36 – 1.70
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1
Table places · points 13 v 1213 v 15
The market · Grom Nowy Staw win44% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 10:43
Our probability · Grom Nowy Staw win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Grom Nowy Staw win52%44%+8
Draw20%25%−5
Chemik Bydgoszcz win28%31%−3
Over 2.5 goals76%64%+12
Both teams to score73%67%+6
Over 1.5 goals91%82%+9
Over 3.5 goals57%45%+12
Grom Nowy Staw or draw72%69%+3
Grom Nowy Staw clean sheet19%––
Chemik Bydgoszcz clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%
0123450 2.2 2.8 2.6 1 3.9 7.2 5.8 3.3 2 4.8 7.9 6.6 3.8 3 3.8 6.2 5.2 3.0 4 2.3 3.7 3.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Grom Nowy Staw down, Chemik Bydgoszcz across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

GROM NOWY STAW

DLWWLL4–4 · 1–5 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

CHEMIK BYDGOSZCZ

DDDDWL2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polonia Środa12+1930
2Luzino12+2128
3Wda Świecie12+121
4Kluczevia Stargard11+119
5Stargard Szczeciński12+718
6Lech Poznań II11+118
7Noteć Czarnków12+317
8Kalisz12−117
9Bałtyk Koszalin12016
10Unia Swarzędz12+114
11Gedania Gdansk12014
12Flota Świnoujście12−614
13Grom Nowy Staw12−113
14Elana Toruń12−513
15Chemik Bydgoszcz12−512
16Victoria Września12−1111
17Kotwica Kórnik12−1411
18Lipno Stęszew12−118

The competition's standings before kick-off.