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Gedania Gdansk v Stargard Szczeciński

Gedania Gdansk

2–2Full time

Stargard Szczeciński

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Gedania Gdansk 2–2 Stargard Szczeciński STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stargard Szczeciński win~~49%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.987

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.908

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stargard Szczeciński win at 49%.
2′Much as we predicted: Stargard Szczeciński was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 32–20–49
2′KICK-OFF Gedania Gdansk v Stargard Szczeciński
7′Gedania Gdansk find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 52–19–29
7′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 52–19–29
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gedania Gdansk 1–0 Stargard Szczeciński
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Gedania Gdansk win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Stargard Szczeciński win 29%)
11′A goal for Stargard Szczeciński on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–21–48
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Gedania Gdansk 1–1 Stargard Szczeciński
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Stargard Szczeciński win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Gedania Gdansk win 32%)
27′Gedania Gdansk score on 24′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 55–21–24
27′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–1 · 55–21–24
27′⚽ GOAL · 24' Gedania Gdansk 2–1 Stargard Szczeciński
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Gedania Gdansk win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Stargard Szczeciński win 24%)
34′Stargard Szczeciński find the net on 33′. 2–2. 2–2 · 31–25–44
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Gedania Gdansk 2–2 Stargard Szczeciński
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 44% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Stargard Szczeciński win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Gedania Gdansk win 31%)
40′PENALTY MISSED · 39' Gedania Gdansk
45′HALF-TIME Gedania Gdansk 2–2 Stargard Szczeciński
46′SECOND HALF Gedania Gdansk 2–2 Stargard Szczeciński
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
57′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 27–35–37
63′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 26–40–34
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Stargard Szczeciński win 34%)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
74′Goals are coming at about the 4.4 we expected. 2–2 · 20–53–26
81′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 14–68–18
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
84′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 10–76–13
88′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 7–83–9
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Stargard Szczeciński win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
93′We said Stargard Szczeciński at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Gedania Gdansk 2–2 Stargard Szczeciński
FTGedania Gdansk 2–2 Stargard Szczeciński · Stargard Szczeciński win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stargard Szczeciński are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gedania Gdansk 32%, draw 19%, Stargard Szczeciński 49%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Gedania Gdansk v Stargard SzczecińskiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gedania Gdansk win32%

Draw19%

Stargard Szczeciński win49%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gedania Gdansk

Stargard Szczeciński

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Stargard Szczeciński	12	+7	18
11	Gedania Gdansk	12	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stargard szczeciński winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market50%

Us49%

~~Market~~50%

We make Stargard Szczeciński a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gedania Gdansk v Stargard Szczeciński~~1.96 – 2.44

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 18~~11 v 5

~~The market · Stargard Szczeciński win~~50% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stargard Szczeciński win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gedania Gdansk win	32%	27%	+5
Draw	19%	23%	−4
Stargard Szczeciński win	49%	50%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	80%	68%	+12
Both teams to score	77%	68%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	93%	85%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	63%	48%	+15
Gedania Gdansk or draw	51%	50%	+1
Gedania Gdansk clean sheet	10%	–	–
Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.0%

0123450 3.0 3.8 3.0 1 2.4 6.3 7.0 5.6 3.4 2 2.5 5.7 6.7 5.3 3.2 3 3.7 4.3 3.4 2.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gedania Gdansk down, Stargard Szczeciński across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gedania Gdansk at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stargard Szczeciński away: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Gedania Gdansk, 2.44 for Stargard Szczeciński. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–1 GED · GED 0–2 STA · GED 3–1 STA · STA 1–2 GED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

GEDANIA GDANSK

LDWLDW0–4 · 1–1 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 3–2

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI

LWDDWL2–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	12	+21	28
3	Wda Świecie	12	+1	21
4	Kluczevia Stargard	11	+1	19
5	Stargard Szczeciński	12	+7	18
6	Lech Poznań II	11	+1	18
7	Noteć Czarnków	12	+3	17
8	Kalisz	12	−1	17
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	12	0	16
10	Unia Swarzędz	12	+1	14
11	Gedania Gdansk	12	0	14
12	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
13	Grom Nowy Staw	12	−1	13
14	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	12	−5	12
16	Victoria Września	12	−11	11
17	Kotwica Kórnik	12	−14	11
18	Lipno Stęszew	12	−11	8