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Elana Toruń v Kotwica Kórnik

Elana Toruń

3–1Full time

Kotwica Kórnik

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Elana Toruń 3–1 Kotwica Kórnik ELANA TORUŃ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elana Toruń win~~53%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.325

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elana Toruń win at 53%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Elana Toruń 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–22–25
2′KICK-OFF Elana Toruń v Kotwica Kórnik
33′Elana Toruń score on 33′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–9
33′We said Elana Toruń at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Elana Toruń 1–0 Kotwica Kórnik
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Elana Toruń win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
34′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–16–8
36′Kotwica Kórnik find the net on 35′. 1–1. 1–1 · 46–29–25
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Elana Toruń 1–1 Kotwica Kórnik
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Elana Toruń win: 53% at kick-off, 46% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Elana Toruń win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Elana Toruń 2–1 Kotwica Kórnik
46′SECOND HALF Elana Toruń 2–1 Kotwica Kórnik
48′A goal for Elana Toruń on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 76–17–7
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Elana Toruń 2–1 Kotwica Kórnik
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Elana Toruń win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
63′We said Elana Toruń at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Elana Toruń win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
75′We said Elana Toruń at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
80′Elana Toruń score on 80′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′We said Elana Toruń at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Elana Toruń 3–1 Kotwica Kórnik
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Elana Toruń win: 53% at kick-off, 99% now
81′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
83′We said Elana Toruń at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Elana Toruń 3–1 Kotwica Kórnik
FTElana Toruń 3–1 Kotwica Kórnik · Elana Toruń win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elana Toruń are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elana Toruń 53%, draw 21%, Kotwica Kórnik 25%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Elana Toruń v Kotwica KórnikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Elana Toruń win53%

Draw21%

Kotwica Kórnik win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elana Toruń

Kotwica Kórnik

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
17	Kotwica Kórnik	12	−14	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elana toruń winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:26 · locked at kick-off

53% The market53%

Us53%

~~Market~~53%

We make Elana Toruń a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elana Toruń v Kotwica Kórnik~~2.13 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~14 v 17

~~The market · Elana Toruń win~~53% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elana Toruń win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elana Toruń win	53%	53%	0
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Kotwica Kórnik win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	47%	42%	+5
Elana Toruń or draw	75%	76%	−1
Elana Toruń clean sheet	25%	–	–
Kotwica Kórnik clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.6 4.0 3.0 1 6.1 9.0 6.0 2.8 2 6.6 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 4.7 6.3 4.3 2.1 4 2.5 3.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elana Toruń down, Kotwica Kórnik across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elana Toruń at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kotwica Kórnik away: 1.17 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Elana Toruń, 1.41 for Kotwica Kórnik. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ELA 1–1 KOT · KOT 1–0 ELA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 4 Sept

ELANA TORUŃ

LLDDWW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

KOTWICA KÓRNIK

WWLLLD4–2 · 4–1 · 1–6 · 1–3 · 0–7 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	12	+21	28
3	Wda Świecie	12	+1	21
4	Kluczevia Stargard	11	+1	19
5	Stargard Szczeciński	12	+7	18
6	Lech Poznań II	11	+1	18
7	Noteć Czarnków	12	+3	17
8	Kalisz	12	−1	17
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	12	0	16
10	Unia Swarzędz	12	+1	14
11	Gedania Gdansk	12	0	14
12	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
13	Grom Nowy Staw	12	−1	13
14	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	12	−5	12
16	Victoria Września	12	−11	11
17	Kotwica Kórnik	12	−14	11
18	Lipno Stęszew	12	−11	8