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Elana Toruń v Flota Świnoujście

Elana Toruń

1–0Full time

Flota Świnoujście

III Liga - Group 2 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Elana Toruń 1–0 Flota Świnoujście ELANA TORUŃ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elana Toruń win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elana Toruń win at 46%.
71′SECOND HALF Elana Toruń 0–0 Flota Świnoujście
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Elana Toruń 1–0 Flota Świnoujście
FTElana Toruń 1–0 Flota Świnoujście · Elana Toruń win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Elana Toruń win46%

Draw24%

Flota Świnoujście win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elana toruń winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Elana Toruń a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · elana toruń win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elana Toruń win	46%	36%	+10
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Flota Świnoujście win	29%	39%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	58%	60%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	40%	−3
Elana Toruń or draw	71%	61%	+9
Elana Toruń clean sheet	27%	–	–
Flota Świnoujście clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 6.0 4.2 1 7.9 11.1 7.0 3.1 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 4.0 5.2 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elana Toruń down, Flota Świnoujście across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elana Toruń at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Flota Świnoujście away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Elana Toruń, 1.32 for Flota Świnoujście. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FLO 2–2 ELA · ELA 3–2 FLO · ELA 0–2 FLO · FLO 3–1 ELA

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

ELANA TORUŃ

LLLDDW1–5 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

FLOTA ŚWINOUJŚCIE

LWDLLL1–5 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	11	+17	27
2	Luzino	11	+18	25
3	Kluczevia Stargard	9	+6	19
4	Stargard Szczeciński	11	+8	18
5	Wda Świecie	10	+1	18
6	Kalisz	11	+1	17
7	Noteć Czarnków	11	+3	16
8	Lech Poznań II	9	+2	15
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	11	0	15
10	Flota Świnoujście	11	−5	14
11	Unia Swarzędz	11	+1	13
12	Grom Nowy Staw	11	0	13
13	Gedania Gdansk	11	−1	11
14	Elana Toruń	11	−6	10
15	Kotwica Kórnik	11	−14	10
16	Chemik Bydgoszcz	10	−7	9
17	Victoria Września	11	−12	8
18	Lipno Stęszew	11	−12	5