Chemik Bydgoszcz v Unia Swarzędz prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–3 Unia Swarzędz UNIA SWARZĘDZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unia Swarzędz win~~48%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unia Swarzędz win at 48%.
2′Much as we predicted: Unia Swarzędz was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 28–25–48
2′KICK-OFF Chemik Bydgoszcz v Unia Swarzędz
4′A goal for Unia Swarzędz on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–72
4′We published Unia Swarzędz at 48%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 12–16–72
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Chemik Bydgoszcz 0–1 Unia Swarzędz
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Unia Swarzędz
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Chemik Bydgoszcz 0–1 Unia Swarzędz
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–18–73
31′Chemik Bydgoszcz score on 30′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–31–42
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–1 Unia Swarzędz
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 42% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–1 Unia Swarzędz
46′SECOND HALF Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–1 Unia Swarzędz
51′Unia Swarzędz find the net on 50′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–18–76
51′We published Unia Swarzędz at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–2 · 6–18–76
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–2 Unia Swarzędz
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
64′We published Unia Swarzędz at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
74′We published Unia Swarzędz at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
79′A goal for Unia Swarzędz on 78′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–3 Unia Swarzędz
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Unia Swarzędz win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We published Unia Swarzędz at 48%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
83′We published Unia Swarzędz at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′M. Grobelny scores for Unia Swarzędz on 79′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–3 Unia Swarzędz
FTChemik Bydgoszcz 1–3 Unia Swarzędz · Unia Swarzędz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unia Swarzędz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chemik Bydgoszcz 28%, draw 24%, Unia Swarzędz 48%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Chemik Bydgoszcz v Unia SwarzędzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chemik Bydgoszcz win28%

Draw24%

Unia Swarzędz win48%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chemik Bydgoszcz

Unia Swarzędz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unia swarzędz winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market43%

Us48%

~~Market~~43%

We make Unia Swarzędz a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chemik Bydgoszcz v Unia Swarzędz~~1.27 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~15 v 12

~~The market · Unia Swarzędz win~~43% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unia Swarzędz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chemik Bydgoszcz win	28%	31%	−3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Unia Swarzędz win	48%	43%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw	52%	57%	−5
Chemik Bydgoszcz clean sheet	18%	–	–
Unia Swarzędz clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.6 8.3 7.4 4.3 1 6.0 11.1 9.2 5.3 2.4 2 4.1 6.8 5.8 3.4 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chemik Bydgoszcz down, Unia Swarzędz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Chemik Bydgoszcz at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Unia Swarzędz away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Chemik Bydgoszcz, 1.74 for Unia Swarzędz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept

CHEMIK BYDGOSZCZ

DDDWLL2–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–2

UNIA SWARZĘDZ

LLWWDD3–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 7–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	13	+20	33
2	Luzino	13	+20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	+2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	−2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	−7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11