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Chemik Bydgoszcz v Gedania Gdansk

Chemik Bydgoszcz

2–3Full time

Gedania Gdansk

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Chemik Bydgoszcz 2–3 Gedania Gdansk CHEMIK BYDGOSZCZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chemik Bydgoszcz win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.648

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.720

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chemik Bydgoszcz win at 43%.
2′KICK-OFF Chemik Bydgoszcz v Gedania Gdansk
4′A goal for Gedania Gdansk on 5′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 43–22–35
7′⚽ GOAL · 5' Chemik Bydgoszcz 0–1 Gedania Gdansk
26′We said Chemik Bydgoszcz at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–21–60
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Chemik Bydgoszcz win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Gedania Gdansk win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Chemik Bydgoszcz win 19%)
27′PENALTY MISSED · 27' Chemik Bydgoszcz
45′HALF-TIME Chemik Bydgoszcz 0–1 Gedania Gdansk
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Chemik Bydgoszcz win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Gedania Gdansk win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Chemik Bydgoszcz win 19%)
47′SECOND HALF Chemik Bydgoszcz 0–1 Gedania Gdansk
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Chemik Bydgoszcz 0–2 Gedania Gdansk
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Chemik Bydgoszcz 1–2 Gedania Gdansk
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Chemik Bydgoszcz 2–2 Gedania Gdansk
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Chemik Bydgoszcz 2–3 Gedania Gdansk
FTFULL TIME Chemik Bydgoszcz 2–3 Gedania Gdansk
FTChemik Bydgoszcz 2–3 Gedania Gdansk · Chemik Bydgoszcz win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chemik Bydgoszcz win43%

Draw21%

Gedania Gdansk win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chemik bydgoszcz winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Chemik Bydgoszcz a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chemik bydgoszcz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chemik Bydgoszcz win	43%	44%	0
Draw	21%	25%	−3
Gedania Gdansk win	35%	32%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	73%	60%	+13
Both teams to score	72%	63%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	89%	79%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	53%	40%	+13
Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw	65%	68%	−4
Chemik Bydgoszcz clean sheet	17%	–	–
Gedania Gdansk clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.7 3.8 3.6 2.2 1 4.2 8.2 7.0 4.2 2 4.5 7.7 6.9 4.2 3 3.0 5.2 4.6 2.8 4 2.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chemik Bydgoszcz down, Gedania Gdansk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Chemik Bydgoszcz at home: 1.60 scored, 2.20 conceded a game (last 5). Gedania Gdansk away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Chemik Bydgoszcz, 1.83 for Gedania Gdansk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

CHEMIK BYDGOSZCZ

LDDDDW1–4 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–0

GEDANIA GDANSK

LLDWLD3–4 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	11	+18	25
3	Kluczevia Stargard	10	+4	19
4	Stargard Szczeciński	11	+8	18
5	Wda Świecie	10	+1	18
6	Kalisz	11	+1	17
7	Noteć Czarnków	11	+3	16
8	Lech Poznań II	9	+2	15
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	11	0	15
10	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
11	Unia Swarzędz	11	+1	13
12	Grom Nowy Staw	11	0	13
13	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
14	Gedania Gdansk	11	−1	11
15	Kotwica Kórnik	11	−14	10
16	Chemik Bydgoszcz	10	−7	9
17	Victoria Września	11	−12	8
18	Lipno Stęszew	11	−12	5