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Bałtyk Koszalin v Unia Swarzędz

Bałtyk Koszalin

1–1Full time

Unia Swarzędz

III Liga - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bałtyk Koszalin 1–1 Unia Swarzędz UNIA SWARZĘDZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Unia Swarzędz win~~39%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.867

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unia Swarzędz win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Unia Swarzędz was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Bałtyk Koszalin v Unia Swarzędz
45′HALF-TIME Bałtyk Koszalin 0–0 Unia Swarzędz
46′SECOND HALF Bałtyk Koszalin 0–0 Unia Swarzędz
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Bałtyk Koszalin 1–0 Unia Swarzędz
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Bałtyk Koszalin 1–1 Unia Swarzędz
FTFULL TIME Bałtyk Koszalin 1–1 Unia Swarzędz
FTBałtyk Koszalin 1–1 Unia Swarzędz · Unia Swarzędz win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bałtyk Koszalin win34%

Draw27%

Unia Swarzędz win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unia swarzędz winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

39% The market48%

Us39%

~~Market~~48%

We make Unia Swarzędz a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · unia swarzędz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bałtyk Koszalin win	34%	28%	+6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Unia Swarzędz win	39%	48%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	54%	63%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	74%	80%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	40%	−12
Bałtyk Koszalin or draw	61%	52%	+8
Bałtyk Koszalin clean sheet	26%	–	–
Unia Swarzędz clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.9 9.3 6.7 3.2 1 8.4 12.4 8.2 3.9 2 5.6 7.5 5.2 2.5 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bałtyk Koszalin down, Unia Swarzędz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bałtyk Koszalin at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Unia Swarzędz away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Bałtyk Koszalin, 1.40 for Unia Swarzędz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2

BAŁTYK KOSZALIN

WDLLWW2–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1

UNIA SWARZĘDZ

LDLLWW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	12	+19	30
2	Luzino	11	+18	25
3	Kluczevia Stargard	10	+4	19
4	Stargard Szczeciński	11	+8	18
5	Wda Świecie	10	+1	18
6	Kalisz	11	+1	17
7	Noteć Czarnków	11	+3	16
8	Lech Poznań II	9	+2	15
9	Bałtyk Koszalin	11	0	15
10	Flota Świnoujście	12	−6	14
11	Unia Swarzędz	11	+1	13
12	Grom Nowy Staw	11	0	13
13	Elana Toruń	12	−5	13
14	Gedania Gdansk	11	−1	11
15	Kotwica Kórnik	11	−14	10
16	Chemik Bydgoszcz	10	−7	9
17	Victoria Września	11	−12	8
18	Lipno Stęszew	11	−12	5