Bałtyk Koszalin v Elana Toruń prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Bałtyk Koszalin 2–3 Elana Toruń BAŁTYK KOSZALIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bałtyk Koszalin win~~46%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.662

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bałtyk Koszalin win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: Bałtyk Koszalin was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
2′KICK-OFF Bałtyk Koszalin v Elana Toruń
13′Elana Toruń score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
13′We said Bałtyk Koszalin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Bałtyk Koszalin 0–1 Elana Toruń
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Bałtyk Koszalin win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Elana Toruń win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Bałtyk Koszalin win 44%)
20′We said Bałtyk Koszalin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 17–24–59
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Bałtyk Koszalin win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
38′We said Bałtyk Koszalin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′HALF-TIME Bałtyk Koszalin 0–1 Elana Toruń
46′SECOND HALF Bałtyk Koszalin 0–1 Elana Toruń
52′Elana Toruń find the net on 52′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
52′We said Bałtyk Koszalin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Bałtyk Koszalin 0–2 Elana Toruń
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Bałtyk Koszalin win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
59′K. Karbownik scores for Elana Toruń on 58′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Bałtyk Koszalin 0–3 Elana Toruń · K. Karbownik
90′Bałtyk Koszalin score on 89′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Bałtyk Koszalin 1–3 Elana Toruń
93′Bałtyk Koszalin find the net on 90′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–97
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–2–97
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Bałtyk Koszalin 2–3 Elana Toruń
FTFULL TIME Bałtyk Koszalin 2–3 Elana Toruń
FTBałtyk Koszalin 2–3 Elana Toruń · Bałtyk Koszalin win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bałtyk Koszalin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bałtyk Koszalin 46%, draw 26%, Elana Toruń 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Bałtyk Koszalin v Elana ToruńBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bałtyk Koszalin win46%

Draw26%

Elana Toruń win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup II · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bałtyk Koszalin

Elana Toruń

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bałtyk koszalin winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

46% The market40%

Us46%

~~Market~~40%

We make Bałtyk Koszalin a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bałtyk Koszalin v Elana Toruń~~1.57 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~6 v 11

~~The market · Bałtyk Koszalin win~~40% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bałtyk Koszalin win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bałtyk Koszalin win	46%	40%	+6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Elana Toruń win	28%	34%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Bałtyk Koszalin or draw	72%	66%	+6
Bałtyk Koszalin clean sheet	32%	–	–
Elana Toruń clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.4 7.3 4.5 1 9.9 12.0 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 8.9 5.1 2.0 3 4.2 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bałtyk Koszalin down, Elana Toruń across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bałtyk Koszalin at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Elana Toruń away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Bałtyk Koszalin, 1.16 for Elana Toruń. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ELA 5–2 BAL · BAL 0–1 ELA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

BAŁTYK KOSZALIN

LLWWDW0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

ELANA TORUŃ

LDDWWW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	13	+20	33
2	Luzino	13	+20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	+2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	+2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	+7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	+3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	−2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	+1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	−3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	+1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	−7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	−7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	−11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	−10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	−16	11