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Ząbkovia Ząbki v Jagiellonia II

Ząbkovia Ząbki

2–2Full time

Jagiellonia II

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Ząbkovia Ząbki 2–2 Jagiellonia II ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ząbkovia Ząbki win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.886

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ząbkovia Ząbki win at 43%.
5′KICK-OFF Ząbkovia Ząbki v Jagiellonia II
7′Little has changed for our model: Ząbkovia Ząbki 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ząbkovia Ząbki 0–1 Jagiellonia II
41′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ząbkovia Ząbki 0–1 Jagiellonia II
45′Jagiellonia II find the net on 25′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–64
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ząbkovia Ząbki win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Jagiellonia II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Ząbkovia Ząbki win 13%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Ząbkovia Ząbki 1–1 Jagiellonia II
45′HALF-TIME Ząbkovia Ząbki 1–1 Jagiellonia II
48′J. Swiatek scores for Ząbkovia Ząbki on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–34–30
48′SECOND HALF Ząbkovia Ząbki 1–1 Jagiellonia II
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Ząbkovia Ząbki win: 43% at kick-off, 35% now
72′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ząbkovia Ząbki 2–1 Jagiellonia II
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Ząbkovia Ząbki 2–2 Jagiellonia II
FTFULL TIME Ząbkovia Ząbki 2–2 Jagiellonia II
FTZąbkovia Ząbki 2–2 Jagiellonia II · Ząbkovia Ząbki win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ząbkovia Ząbki win43%

Draw23%

Jagiellonia II win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ząbkovia ząbki winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

43% The market45%

Us43%

~~Market~~45%

We make Ząbkovia Ząbki a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ząbkovia ząbki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ząbkovia Ząbki win	43%	45%	−3
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Jagiellonia II win	35%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Both teams to score	69%	69%	0
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	48%	48%	0
Ząbkovia Ząbki or draw	65%	69%	−4
Ząbkovia Ząbki clean sheet	19%	–	–
Jagiellonia II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 4.3 4.0 2.3 1 4.9 9.3 7.4 4.2 2 5.0 8.2 6.8 3.9 3 3.2 5.2 4.3 2.4 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ząbkovia Ząbki down, Jagiellonia II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,663 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ząbkovia Ząbki at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Jagiellonia II away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Ząbkovia Ząbki, 1.69 for Jagiellonia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZAB 0–1 JAG · JAG 1–5 ZAB

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI

WWLWWL4–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 3–4

JAGIELLONIA II

LDWWLL0–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 7–4 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	+9	21
4	Swit	11	+8	20
5	Pelikan Łowicz	11	+4	20
6	Wisła Płock II	11	+4	18
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	+1	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	+2	15
9	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
10	Widzew II	10	+3	14
11	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
12	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13
13	Olimpia Elbląg	11	−4	13
14	ŁKS Łódź II	10	−3	11
15	Mławianka Mława	11	−10	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	11	−6	9
17	Troszyn	10	−12	7
18	Łomża	11	−15	3