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Wisła Płock II v Ząbkovia Ząbki
Wisła Płock II
Ząbkovia ZąbkiIII Liga - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Wisła Płock II win at 45%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Wisła Płock II 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–32
- 2′KICK-OFF Wisła Płock II v Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 10′Ząbkovia Ząbki score on 9′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–20–56
- 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Wisła Płock II 0–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 24% now
- 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Ząbkovia Ząbki win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Wisła Płock II win 44%)
- 11′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–20–56
- 20′Wisła Płock II find the net on 19′. 1–1. 1–1 · 43–26–32
- 20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Wisła Płock II 1–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 43% now
- 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Wisła Płock II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Ząbkovia Ząbki win 57%)
- 33′A goal for Wisła Płock II on 32′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 69–19–12
- 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Wisła Płock II 2–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
- 34′We said Wisła Płock II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 2–1 · 69–19–12
- 35′We said Wisła Płock II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–19–11
- 38′Ząbkovia Ząbki score on 37′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 40–30–30
- 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
- 39′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 39–31–30
- 45′HALF-TIME Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 46′SECOND HALF Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Wisła Płock II win 36%)
- 58′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 33–41–26
- 66′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–48–23
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
- 78′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–66–15
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 82′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–75–11
- 86′Ząbkovia Ząbki find the net on 86′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–9–91
- 86′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–9–91
- 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Wisła Płock II 2–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
- 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Ząbkovia Ząbki win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 81%)
- 87′5 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–8–91
- 88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Ząbkovia Ząbki win 91%)
- 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Ząbkovia Ząbki
- FTFULL TIME Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
- FTWisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki · Wisła Płock II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Wisła Płock II are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Wisła Płock II 45%, draw 23%, Ząbkovia Ząbki 32%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Wisła Płock II win45%
Ząbkovia Ząbki win32%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00
RoundGroup I · matchday 14
Match timeline
All events
Wisła Płock IIMIN
Ząbkovia ZąbkiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Wisła Płock II
Ząbkovia Ząbki
Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1
Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Wisła Płock II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock II win | 45% | 37% | +8 |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Ząbkovia Ząbki win | 32% | 38% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 82% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Wisła Płock II or draw | 68% | 62% | +6 |
| Wisła Płock II clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Ząbkovia Ząbki clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025/26Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept
WISŁA PŁOCK II
ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 13 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 13 | +14 | 28 |
| 3 | Swit | 13 | +5 | 23 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 13 | +4 | 23 |
| 5 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 13 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 13 | −3 | 17 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 13 | −1 | 16 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 13 | −1 | 15 |
| 14 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 13 | −5 | 14 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 13 | −10 | 13 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 13 | −6 | 12 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 13 | −12 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 13 | −18 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Weszlo
Wigry Suwałki
Swit
Pelikan Łowicz
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Warta Sieradz
Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Elbląg
Jagiellonia II
Widzew II
ŁKS Łódź II
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Mławianka Mława
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Troszyn
Łomża