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Model 1.2

Home › Football › III Liga - Group 1 › Wisła Płock II v Ząbkovia Ząbki

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Wisła Płock II v Ząbkovia Ząbki

Wisła Płock II
2–2Full time
Ząbkovia Ząbki

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04
Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki WISŁA PŁOCK II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wisła Płock II win45%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.909
The market’s Brier score0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wisła Płock II win at 45%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Wisła Płock II 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–32
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Wisła Płock II v Ząbkovia Ząbki
  4. 10′Ząbkovia Ząbki score on 9′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–20–56
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Wisła Płock II 0–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 24% now
  7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Ząbkovia Ząbki win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Wisła Płock II win 44%)
  8. 11′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–20–56
  9. 20′Wisła Płock II find the net on 19′. 1–1. 1–1 · 43–26–32
  10. 20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Wisła Płock II 1–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  11. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 43% now
  12. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Wisła Płock II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Ząbkovia Ząbki win 57%)
  13. 33′A goal for Wisła Płock II on 32′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 69–19–12
  14. 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Wisła Płock II 2–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  15. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
  16. 34′We said Wisła Płock II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 2–1 · 69–19–12
  17. 35′We said Wisła Płock II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–19–11
  18. 38′Ząbkovia Ząbki score on 37′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 40–30–30
  19. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  20. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
  21. 39′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 39–31–30
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  23. 46′SECOND HALF Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  24. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  25. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Wisła Płock II win 36%)
  26. 58′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 33–41–26
  27. 66′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–48–23
  28. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  29. 78′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–66–15
  30. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  31. 82′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–75–11
  32. 86′Ząbkovia Ząbki find the net on 86′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–9–91
  33. 86′We said Wisła Płock II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–9–91
  34. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Wisła Płock II 2–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  35. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Wisła Płock II win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
  36. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Ząbkovia Ząbki win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 81%)
  37. 87′5 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–8–91
  38. 88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Ząbkovia Ząbki
  39. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Ząbkovia Ząbki win 91%)
  40. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Ząbkovia Ząbki
  41. FTFULL TIME Wisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  42. FTWisła Płock II 2–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki · Wisła Płock II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wisła Płock II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wisła Płock II 45%, draw 23%, Ząbkovia Ząbki 32%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Wisła Płock II v Ząbkovia ZąbkiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Wisła Płock II win45%
Draw23%
Ząbkovia Ząbki win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wisła Płock II

Ząbkovia Ząbki

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Wisła Płock II13+421
7Ząbkovia Ząbki13+421

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisła płock ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off
45% The market37%
Us45%
Market37%

We make Wisła Płock II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wisła Płock II v Ząbkovia Ząbki1.95 – 1.63
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 21 v 216 v 7
The market · Wisła Płock II win37% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 10:45
Our probability · Wisła Płock II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wisła Płock II win45%37%+8
Draw23%24%−1
Ząbkovia Ząbki win32%38%−6
Over 2.5 goals69%67%+2
Both teams to score69%68%+1
Over 1.5 goals87%82%+5
Over 3.5 goals48%47%+1
Wisła Płock II or draw68%62%+6
Wisła Płock II clean sheet20%––
Ząbkovia Ząbki clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.4 4.2 3.8 2.1 1 5.0 9.2 7.1 3.9 2 5.3 8.4 6.8 3.7 3 3.5 5.5 4.4 2.4 4 2.7 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wisła Płock II down, Ząbkovia Ząbki across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsZAB 0–1 WIS · WIS 2–2 ZAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept

WISŁA PŁOCK II

DLWLWL2–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI

WWLDWD4–2 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo13+1732
2Wigry Suwałki13+1428
3Swit13+523
4Pelikan Łowicz13+423
5Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki13+521
6Wisła Płock II13+421
7Ząbkovia Ząbki13+421
8Warta Sieradz13+221
9Olimpia Zambrów13+120
10Olimpia Elbląg13−317
11Jagiellonia II13−116
12Widzew II13015
13ŁKS Łódź II13−115
14Lechia T. Mazowiecki13−514
15Mławianka Mława13−1013
16Polonia Lidzbark Warm.13−612
17Troszyn13−1211
18Łomża13−183

The competition's standings before kick-off.