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Wisła Płock II v Troszyn

Wisła Płock II
2–1Full time
Troszyn

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
Wisła Płock II 2–1 Troszyn WISŁA PŁOCK II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wisła Płock II win44%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.466
The market’s Brier score0.337

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wisła Płock II win at 44%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Wisła Płock II v Troszyn
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Wisła Płock II 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–33
  4. 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Wisła Płock II 0–1 Troszyn
  5. 23′9′ and it is 0–1: M. Klosinski on the scoresheet for Troszyn. 0–1 · 20–22–58
  6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Wisła Płock II win: 44% at kick-off, 20% now
  7. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Troszyn win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Wisła Płock II win 20%)
  8. 27′PENALTY MISSED · 25' Wisła Płock II
  9. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Wisła Płock II 1–1 Troszyn
  10. 44′A. Bielka scores for Wisła Płock II on 26′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–33–29
  11. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Wisła Płock II win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
  12. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Wisła Płock II win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Troszyn win 29%)
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Wisła Płock II 1–1 Troszyn
  14. 47′SECOND HALF Wisła Płock II 1–1 Troszyn
  15. 49′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 36–36–28
  16. 66′We said Wisła Płock II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–49–23
  17. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Wisła Płock II win: 44% at kick-off, 28% now
  18. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Wisła Płock II win 28%)
  19. 83′⚽ GOAL · 9' Wisła Płock II 1–1 Troszyn · M. Klosinski
  20. 83′PENALTY MISSED · 26' A. Bielka · Wisła Płock II
  21. 83′⚽ GOAL · 26' Wisła Płock II 1–1 Troszyn · A. Bielka
  22. 87′We said Wisła Płock II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–89–5
  23. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Wisła Płock II win: 44% at kick-off, 6% now
  24. 90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Wisła Płock II 2–1 Troszyn
  25. FTFULL TIME Wisła Płock II 2–1 Troszyn
  26. FTWisła Płock II 2–1 Troszyn · Wisła Płock II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wisła Płock II win44%
Draw23%
Troszyn win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisła płock ii winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
44% The market53%
Us44%
Market53%

We make Wisła Płock II a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2010 OCT 10:15
Our probability · wisła płock ii win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wisła Płock II win44%53%−8
Draw23%23%0
Troszyn win32%24%+8
Over 2.5 goals66%66%+1
Both teams to score66%65%+1
Over 1.5 goals86%83%+3
Over 3.5 goals45%45%0
Wisła Płock II or draw68%76%−8
Wisła Płock II clean sheet21%––
Troszyn clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.0 4.7 4.0 2.1 1 5.6 9.9 7.3 3.8 2 5.7 8.6 6.6 3.5 3 3.5 5.3 4.1 2.2 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wisła Płock II down, Troszyn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsWIS 2–1 TRO · TRO 2–1 WIS

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

WISŁA PŁOCK II

WWDLWL5–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

TROSZYN

DDWDLD1–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo11+1426
2Wigry Suwałki12+1125
3Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki11+921
4Swit11+820
5Pelikan Łowicz11+420
6Wisła Płock II11+418
7Ząbkovia Ząbki10+116
8Jagiellonia II10+215
9Warta Sieradz11015
10Widzew II10+314
11Olimpia Zambrów11−414
12Lechia T. Mazowiecki11−213
13Olimpia Elbląg11−413
14ŁKS Łódź II10−311
15Mławianka Mława11−1010
16Polonia Lidzbark Warm.11−69
17Troszyn10−127
18Łomża11−153

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.