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Wigry Suwałki v Weszlo

Wigry Suwałki

4–1Full time

Weszlo

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Wigry Suwałki 4–1 Weszlo WIGRY SUWAŁKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wigry Suwałki win~~45%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.451

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.419

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wigry Suwałki win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wigry Suwałki was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Wigry Suwałki v Weszlo
17′Weszlo find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
17′We said Wigry Suwałki at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–23–57
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Wigry Suwałki 0–1 Weszlo
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Wigry Suwałki win: 45% at kick-off, 20% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Weszlo win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Wigry Suwałki win 43%)
18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' Weszlo
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Wigry Suwałki win: 45% at kick-off, 43% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Wigry Suwałki win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Weszlo win 57%)
32′Wigry Suwałki find the net on 32′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′We published Wigry Suwałki at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Wigry Suwałki 1–0 Weszlo
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Wigry Suwałki win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
40′A goal for Wigry Suwałki on 39′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′We published Wigry Suwałki at 45%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Wigry Suwałki 2–0 Weszlo
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Wigry Suwałki win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Wigry Suwałki 2–0 Weszlo
46′SECOND HALF Wigry Suwałki 2–0 Weszlo
53′51′: K. Noworyta on the scoresheet for Wigry Suwałki, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′We published Wigry Suwałki at 45%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 51' Wigry Suwałki 3–0 Weszlo · K. Noworyta
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Wigry Suwałki win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
57′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
57′Weszlo find the net on 57′. 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Wigry Suwałki 3–1 Weszlo
83′We published Wigry Suwałki at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′A goal for Wigry Suwałki on 89′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Wigry Suwałki 4–1 Weszlo
FTFULL TIME Wigry Suwałki 4–1 Weszlo
FTWigry Suwałki 4–1 Weszlo · Wigry Suwałki win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wigry Suwałki are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wigry Suwałki 45%, draw 25%, Weszlo 29%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Wigry Suwałki v WeszloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Wigry Suwałki win45%

Draw25%

Weszlo win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wigry Suwałki

Weszlo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wigry suwałki winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Wigry Suwałki a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wigry Suwałki v Weszlo~~1.62 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 32~~2 v 1

~~The market · Wigry Suwałki win~~47% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wigry Suwałki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wigry Suwałki win	45%	47%	−2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Weszlo win	29%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Wigry Suwałki or draw	71%	72%	−1
Wigry Suwałki clean sheet	29%	–	–
Weszlo clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.6 6.6 4.6 1 8.6 11.9 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 4.0 4.9 3.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wigry Suwałki down, Weszlo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Wigry Suwałki at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Weszlo away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Wigry Suwałki, 1.25 for Weszlo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

WIGRY SUWAŁKI

DWWWWW1–1 · 6–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 4–1

WESZLO

WWDLWW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	13	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
5	Wisła Płock II	14	+4	22
6	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	+4	22
7	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3