Widzew II v Weszlo prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Widzew II 0–2 Weszlo WIDZEW II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Widzew II win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.609

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Widzew II win at 40%.
3′Much as we predicted: Widzew II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
3′KICK-OFF Widzew II v Weszlo
11′Much as we predicted: Widzew II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–37
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Widzew II 0–1 Weszlo
22′20′ and it is 0–1: Weszlo have scored. 0–1 · 18–21–62
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Weszlo win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Widzew II win 18%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
23′20′ and it is 0–1: Weszlo have scored. 0–1 · 17–21–62
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
28′We said Widzew II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–62
35′We said Widzew II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–63
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Weszlo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Widzew II win 15%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Weszlo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Widzew II win 15%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Weszlo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Widzew II win 15%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Weszlo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Widzew II win 15%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Weszlo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Widzew II win 15%)
45′HALF-TIME Widzew II 0–1 Weszlo
45′⚽ GOAL · 20' Widzew II 0–1 Weszlo · D. Winiarski
47′SECOND HALF Widzew II 0–1 Weszlo
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Widzew II 0–2 Weszlo
FTFULL TIME Widzew II 0–2 Weszlo
FTWidzew II 0–2 Weszlo · Widzew II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Widzew II win40%

Draw23%

Weszlo win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Widzew II

Weszlo

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
11	Widzew II	10	+3	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · widzew ii winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Widzew II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · widzew ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Widzew II win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Weszlo win	37%	37%	0
Over 2.5 goals	68%	62%	+6
Both teams to score	68%	66%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	47%	43%	+4
Widzew II or draw	63%	63%	0
Widzew II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Weszlo clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 4.7 4.4 2.6 1 4.9 9.5 7.7 4.5 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 3.9 3 2.9 4.8 4.1 2.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Widzew II down, Weszlo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,669 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Widzew II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Weszlo away: 1.60 scored, 0.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Widzew II, 1.73 for Weszlo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

WIDZEW II

WWLLLD4–1 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–6 · 1–1

WESZLO

DWWWDL3–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Pelikan Łowicz	12	+7	23
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	12	+6	21
5	Wisła Płock II	12	+5	21
6	Swit	12	+3	20
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	11	+1	17
8	Jagiellonia II	11	+2	16
9	Olimpia Elbląg	12	−3	16
10	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
11	Widzew II	10	+3	14
12	ŁKS Łódź II	11	+2	14
13	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13
15	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	12	−5	12
16	Mławianka Mława	12	−11	10
17	Troszyn	11	−13	7
18	Łomża	12	−16	3